Key points
In December, the sales volume of automobile market decreased year-on-year, and the automobile consumption remained stable in 2021
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the wholesale sales volume of automobile in 2021 / 12 was – 1.6% year-on-year / chain + 10.5% to 2.786 million; Among them, the wholesale sales volume of passenger vehicles increased from + 2.0% / + 10.5% to 2.422 million units month on month, and the wholesale sales volume of commercial vehicles increased from – 20.1% / month on month + 10.5% to 364000 units year on year. In 2021, the wholesale sales volume of automobiles increased by + 3.8% year-on-year to 26.275 million; Among them, the cumulative wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by + 6.5% year-on-year to 21.482 million, and the cumulative wholesale sales of commercial vehicles increased by – 6.6% year-on-year to 4.793 million. In 2021, the growth rate of China’s automobile and passenger vehicle wholesale sales fell within the range of 4% – 7% predicted by us, which was in line with expectations. In order to remove the influencing factors of the epidemic in 2020, we compared the cumulative data in 2021 with that in 2019. The results showed that the wholesale sales of vehicles increased by 2.0% over the same period in 2019 (passenger vehicles / commercial vehicles increased by 0.2% and 10.6% respectively).
In December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a year-on-year high-speed growth, and the cumulative production and sales exceeded 3.5 million in 2021
In 2021 / 12, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle output increased by + 120.0% / month on month + 6.7% to 518000, and new energy vehicle sales increased by + 113.9% / month on month + 11.1% to 531000 (penetration rate reached 19.1%); In 2021, the cumulative output of new energy vehicles increased by + 159.5% year-on-year to 3.545 million units, and the cumulative sales increased by + 157.5% year-on-year to 3.521 million units (penetration rate reached 13.4%), which fell below the upper limit of our prediction, in line with expectations. Overall, the production and sales volume has maintained a year-on-year sharp rise since the beginning of 2021, and continues to refresh the historical record of the current month.
In December, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles / commercial vehicles increased month on month, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 20.6%
In 2021 / 12, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles increased by + 120.6% / mom + 10.3% to 498000 (penetration rate reached 20.6%), and the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles increased by + 46.6% / mom + 24.9% to 33000 (penetration rate was 9.1%). In 2021, the cumulative sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles / commercial vehicles increased by + 167.5% / + 54.0% year-on-year to 3.334 million / 186000, and the penetration rate reached 15.6% / 4.0% respectively.
Investment suggestion: continue to be optimistic about the demand release prospect of new energy vehicles (especially the sales climbing trend of A00 / high-end pure electric models and plug-in hybrid models). It is estimated that there will be 5-5.5 million Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022e, and it is optimistic about car companies with strong model product cycle (chip supply mitigation, strong sales volume and profit elasticity), continuous increase of new energy penetration / clear and clear promotion path of intelligent electrification. In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Geely Automobile, and it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) . New forces recommend Tesla, and it is recommended to pay attention to the ideal for a long time.
Risk analysis: the reduction of chip shortage is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; Industry growth is less than expected; Disturbance of macroeconomic factors; Negative impact of new energy vehicle policy change; Technology renewal risk; The risk of overcapacity caused by intensified market competition.
