This week's market
This week (22.4.25-22.4.29), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, gem index and media board index rose by - 1.3%, - 0.3%, 1.0% and - 2.5% respectively.
This week, the top three stocks in the sector rose Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (26.4%), Citic Guoan Information Industry Co.Ltd(000839) (17.4%), Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) (14.2%), and the last three Great Wall International Acg Co.Ltd(000835) (- 68.9%), Shanghai New Culture Media Group Co.Ltd(300336) (- 37.0%) and Shenzhen Capstone Industrial Co.Ltd(000038) (- 34.9%).
This week, individual stocks in the overseas media sector rose by the top three pinduoduo (24.1%), meituan-w (21.6%), bilibili-sw (19.8%), the last three interest headlines (- 25.7%), Aurora (- 13.9%), and robox (- 10.8%).
This week's view
According to the news of China Central Television, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 29 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work, continuing the statement made at the previous meeting of the Financial Committee (March 16). We believe that the signal of stabilization and slowdown of media policy is becoming more and more obvious, and the expectation of marginal improvement is increasing, and the "policy bottom" of media may have been established. We continue to emphasize the view that the media Internet industry has previously been strictly regulated by policies. At the same time, it is an industry with high iteration and continuous innovation. The stability and consistency of policies are important factors to maintain the profitability of the media sector. Three of them deserve attention in the media field:
1. "We should promote the healthy development of the platform economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy". The statement emphasizes "promoting healthy development", "completing special rectification" and "implementing normalized supervision". We believe that the policy regulatory attitude will tend to be pragmatic and stable. We will release stable and consistent regulatory measures on the premise of comprehensively considering the healthy development of the platform economy, which will help smooth market expectations and reduce the probability of "black swan" or "grey rhinoceros" events.
2. "We should make every effort to expand China's demand, give play to the key role of effective investment, strengthen the guarantee of land, energy use and environmental assessment, and comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction". We believe that infrastructure construction in emerging frontier fields such as new cultural infrastructure and yuancosmos g-end project is expected to become the focus of demand after the epidemic, and there is expected to be a large increase in demand in fields such as virtual exhibition, online investment attraction and digital city.
3. "We should give play to the leading role of consumption in the economic cycle". We believe that the market should further understand consumption. Game, film and television, animation, online literature, sports and other content industries belong to spiritual consumption and have the attribute of consumer goods. In the context of the continuous improvement of China's material level, the role of spiritual consumer goods in promoting GDP cannot be ignored, and the probability of introducing positive policies will increase in the future.
We continue to emphasize the previous benefit logic, that is, the marginal improvement of media policy will be beneficial to "traditional industries previously suppressed by policies" and "emerging industries without clear regulatory measures",
It is recommended to continue to pay attention to:
1. Industries that are strictly regulated by policies and have good business models, such as the Internet and games. (1) Internet: affected by liquidity, China US game and strong regulatory expectations, the Internet sector has been killed sharply. This week, the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee continued the statement of the financial committee meeting on the platform economy, and the Internet sector benefited the most. (2) Game: influenced by the positive attitude of policy margin, the game version number was re issued in April 22, and the long-term fundamental investment value of the game industry was established.
2. New contents and formats that have not been touched by the supervision, such as metauniverse. The expectation of the introduction of supporting policies of yuancosmos is enhanced, and the pace of the implementation of new content and new business forms is strong. The pace of regulatory implementation is stabilizing and slowing down. We pay attention to the g-end / b-end large projects with the first fundamentals, such as virtual exhibition field, digital city, etc.
3. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the film and television industry that has been suppressed by policies and the logic of business model has been significantly changed.
Investment advice
(1) influenced by liquidity, China US game and strong regulatory expectations, Internet leaders continue to kill and have entered the oversold range. We continue to be optimistic about new opportunities in the future Internet 3.0 era. We recommend the community short video leader [Kwai-w], and pay attention to the falling Internet leaders [meituan-w] and [Tencent holdings].
(2) immersing in the Internet is the future development trend. Metauniverse is in the initial stage of development. Compared with the implementation of C-end applications (requiring the popularization of access terminals), we believe that g-end / b-end projects are expected to be implemented first. At present, various countries and local governments have gradually introduced relevant policies of the meta universe. City pavilions, exhibition halls, theme pavilions, enterprise pavilions and cultural tourism performance activities are expected to become the first application scenarios for virtual cultural and creative projects. Core recommendations include [ Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) ], creative design leaders of cultural and tourism activities [ Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) ], [ Silkroad Visual Technology Co.Ltd(300556) ], etc. In the near future, many first tier cities will hold the meta universe summit, which highlights the thematic opportunities of the meta universe sector (while considering the impact of changes in the external environment on risk appetite). It is suggested to pay attention to the NFT direction [ Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) ], [ Three'S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) ], [ Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) ]; Direction of meta universe platform [ Beijing Quanshi World Online Network Information Co.Ltd(002995) ]; Virtual digital human direction [ Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) ], [ Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) ].
(3) we are optimistic about the fundamentals of the game industry for a long time, and the short-term policy disturbance is expected to promote the development of the game industry. At present, the share price of game companies has experienced a deep correction due to the suspension of edition numbers. After the reissue of edition numbers, the industry certainty has been established and has long-term investment value. It is suggested to focus on [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ], which has strong operation ability, proven high-quality game R & D ability and sea distribution ability; [ Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ] with high-quality R & D ability and end-to-end tour of Zhuxian world; Focusing on research and development, small and beautiful [ G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ]; [netease-s] with rich product matrix and strong risk resistance; [bilibili-sw] and [heart company] which are greatly affected by the game version number.
Risk tips
The development progress of metauniverse is less than expected, the improvement of overseas liquidity is less than expected, the policy supervision is stricter than expected, the flow decline of game companies affected by the version number is more than expected, and the risk appetite is reduced due to changes in the external environment.
