Key investment points:
This week (2022.1.7-1.13), the home appliance industry fell by 2.28%, which was significantly narrower than that of last week. The comprehensive ranking ranked 21st in the first-class industry classification of CITIC, with poor performance. From the perspective of the growth of various segments and related sectors of household appliances, except that the black electricity sector rose slightly by 0.54% this week, the other sectors fell to varying degrees. Among them, the upper reaches of heidian showed the most significant decline in group zero and small household appliances, down 4.63% and 4.06% respectively this week; The decline of kitchen electricity (- 2.68%) and white electricity (- 2.52%) this week was 0.3-0.4 percentage points lower than the overall level of the household appliance industry; The decline of lighting electrician (- 0.22%) and panel (- 0.67%) was relatively weak. In terms of individual stocks, of the 84 A-share listed companies in the household appliance industry this week, 24 rose, 3 were flat and 57 fell.
In 2022w2 (1.3-1.9), the sales of China's all category home wire market increased significantly by 54.43% year-on-year, and the sales of online market decreased by about 4 percentage points year-on-year (+ 2.9%) compared with 2022w1. From the perspective of key focus categories, the year-on-year growth of double terminal sales volume and market average price of ice washing products is obvious, in which the year-on-year growth of sales volume of two terminals of clothes dryer is more than 150%, and the year-on-year growth of average price in online market is more than 1600 yuan / set; The performance of the two terminal markets of dishwasher is quite differentiated, and the year-on-year increase of sales volume and average price in the offline market are significantly higher than that in the online level.
Due to the recent plate rotation and the switching between high and low market prices, the home appliance sector has significantly callback this week compared with last week. Considering that the industry valuation and fundamentals are in the bottom range at this stage, the industry configurability may gradually improve with the subsequent recovery of market demand and the repair of the company's performance. The main reasons are as follows:
(1) at the policy level, the recent policy of reducing the reserve requirement and interest rate, the strategy of expanding domestic demand to promote the sustainable recovery of consumption, the continuation of the preferential policy of personal income tax, and the launch of a new round of "home appliances to the countryside" have all played a role in boosting the consumption demand of home appliances, and the domestic market may be better improved;
(2) in terms of exports, benefiting from the impact of tariff relief brought about by the entry into force of RCEP agreement, China's household appliance export output has reached a new high. At the same time, as the trade war tends to ease, the overall volume of overseas orders remains stable, which also plays a positive role in improving the profit margin of household appliance export enterprises;
At present, with the rapid increase of market increment and penetration of new household appliances, there is a large medium and long-term growth space between the household appliance subdivided categories, such as integrated stove, sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , intelligent projection and its head company. Therefore, in the context of the current market style rotation, the home appliance sector is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities of subdivided core tracks and head targets.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
