[wind power equipment] core view: select individual stocks in the era of parity
1. Core view: in the context of double carbon goals, the long-term prosperity of wind power can be expected; After entering the era of parity, the investment in equipment units is reduced, and individual stocks need to be selected.
2. Core drive: driven by the subsidy policy, driven by the reduction of kwh power cost and the improvement of IRR of operators, and driven by the large-scale fan, the kwh power cost is reduced
3. Market space: the average annual newly installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan is twice that of the 13th five year plan, and the average annual investment is 1.4 times that of the 13th five year plan
The new installed capacity increased rapidly: the average annual new installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan is 64GW, and the new installed capacity CAGR from 2022 to 2025 is 14%; Among them, the average onshore wind power is 52gw, and the newly installed CAGR from 2022 to 2025 is 21%; The average offshore wind power is 12gw, with 36% of the newly installed CAGR from 2023 to 2025.
The investment in equipment is relatively stable, and offshore wind power is the highlight: “the cumulative investment in wind power during the 14th Five Year Plan period exceeds 800 billion yuan, with an average annual investment of more than 160 billion yuan; The average annual investment of onshore wind power is 108.3 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2022 to 2025 is – 1%; The average annual investment of offshore wind power is 54.2 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2023 to 2025 is 19%.
3. Investment suggestions
1) operator some parts main engine factory. Driven by the reduction of kWh cost and the improvement of IRR rate of return of operators, operators are the biggest beneficiaries of the reduction of kWh cost, followed by parts manufacturers with bargaining power and doubled demand, and main engine manufacturers are the main undertakers of the reduction of kWh cost, with the greatest pressure on cost reduction.
2) the income and profit elasticity of offshore wind power are better than that of onshore wind power. In 2022, offshore wind power will focus on the bidding volume and bidding price; Onshore wind power has entered the performance cashing period.
3) three main lines: operators some parts main engine factory; At present, there are three most promising stocks: Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772)
Operator: shareholder background and proportion of parity items in operating units. It is suggested to pay attention to Longyuan Power (backdoor st Pingzhuang), China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) .
Parts and components (1) high technical barriers, low degree of localization and relatively high profitability – wind power bearing: Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (2) Incremental logic, the increase of volume can offset the decline of price and is expected to achieve long-term profit growth – submarine cable: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pipe pile: Haili wind power / Jiangsu Rainbow Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(002483) / Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) ; (3) Raw materials account for a relatively high proportion of blades, castings and spindles. The profit elasticity brought by the decline in the price of raw materials: Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443)
Main engine factory: research and development strength of large MW and offshore wind turbines; Overseas export business potential; It is recommended that Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) (with high performance flexibility), semi direct drive leader – Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , direct drive leader – Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) .
