Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by – 1.29% and – 0.27% respectively, and the trade retail (CITIC) index rose by – 4.39%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (77 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 16.28% and – 25.82% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 12.18%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by – 4.39%, ranking 24th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, six of the 29 CITIC first-class industries rose. The top three industries were construction, power equipment and building materials, with an increase of 4.21%, 1.69% and 0.90% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 12.18%, ranking 8th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, one of the 29 CITIC first-class industries has risen. The top three industries are coal, real estate and banking, with an increase of 18.07%, – 0.73% and – 1.81% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were department stores, home appliance 3C chains and supermarkets, with increases of 0.85%, – 3.29% and – 3.96% respectively. Since 2022, the top three sub industries in the retail sector are supermarkets, department stores and gold jewelry, with increases of – 0.15%, – 7.27% and – 14.10% respectively.
In the past week, 16 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) rose and 77 fell. Over the past week, the top three companies were Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) , Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) Co.Ltd(600785) and supply and marketing bazaar, with an increase of 34.64%, 19.59% and 15.63% respectively. Since 2022, 35 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) have increased and 58 have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies are Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) , Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) and Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.Ltd(000715) , with increases of 56.98%, 54.36% and 41.31% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
The first quarter report of the retail industry in 2022 has come to an end. On the whole, the performance of department stores and supermarkets is still poor. In addition to the significant improvement in the first quarter report of Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) 2022, the profit side of many retail companies has declined to a certain extent compared with the first quarter of 2021. In view of the serious epidemic situation in some areas in April 2022, we believe that the performance in the second quarter will still be under pressure, and it is difficult to say that the performance will recover in the short term. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, we believe that the lack of consumer confidence and willingness is also the reason for the relatively low overall consumption data. We look forward to the introduction of subsequent policies to promote consumption, and suggest that investors should mainly wait and see in the short term and lay out some undervalued retail stocks. At present, the overall retail sector has entered the bottom of historical valuation, but the trading on the left still needs some time and patience. Suggestions for next week: Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) .
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
