Important changes in the industry this week
1. Price: the price of lithium carbonate decreased this week, and the prices in other links were relatively stable; 2. Terminal: some European countries released the sales volume of electric vehicles in April, and the month on month trend exceeded expectations.
This week's core view
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) q1 performance fluctuation is essentially a phased contract risk exposure problem, which is a quarterly disturbance in the process of price transmission Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) q1 was lower than expected, mainly because the agreement signed by the company for Chinese customers did not include metal pricing mechanism, and the basic price adjustment and technical pricing compensation agreement for Chinese customers was implemented only from February to March, resulting in that the upstream lithium carbonate and other costs of 4q21-1q22 could not be transmitted downward in Q1, showing the risk exposure of raw material fluctuation. The company's Q1 performance does not represent its profitability under its own equilibrium state, nor does it affect the industry trend. We expect that the profitability of 2q22 company will be gradually repaired.
The terminal sales volume after the price rise is the core driving force of the electric vehicle sector. 5. June is the key validation month. In May, the supply chain interruption and shutdown caused by the epidemic are expected to recover gradually. Due to stock orders and the time of price increase, the sales volume from May to June gradually reflects the real demand after the rise of raw materials. Once the data exceeds expectations, the sector will have the opportunity to rebound.
Q2 looks at the battery and Q3 looks at the main engine factory. The price transmission of the industrial chain will lead to large quarterly business fluctuations in different links. As the price rise of batteries is concentrated from March to April, we expect that the profit pressure of Q1 battery link is relatively large, but Q2 is expected to improve significantly month on month; For the main engine plants, since the price increase is also concentrated from March to April, for the main engine plants with large stock orders, the performance of Q2 is expected to reach the bottom and Q3 ushers in a reversal.
The valuation of electric vehicle sector has entered a reasonable low range. At present, the leading companies in the battery sector are 22pe30-40x and some new energy parts companies are pb1-4x. The valuation level is at a low level in two years. Considering that the growth rate of the electric vehicle industry is still 40 +%, we think the current leading valuation level is attractive. In particular, high growth parts falling below pb4x can gradually enter the stage of medium-term layout.
Whole vehicle: optimistic about Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and supply chain; Battery: due to the sharp rise in the price of lithium carbonate and the conduction rhythm, the battery link of Q1 financial report fluctuates greatly. The beginning of q2q2q2begins, and we expect that, including the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ' , Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) etc; Parts and components: parts and components focus on the recommended Tesla leading targets such as Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) and Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Songyuan Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(300893) , which have bottomed out valuation and sufficient orders.
Important industry events this week:
The q1performance comments and Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) comments from 2013 to 2012
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected. Risk of policy changes.
