From January to December of 21, the land transaction and construction area of Baicheng was – 22%, the average transaction price was + 12%, and the pace of land acquisition by mainstream real estate enterprises slowed down
From January to December 2021, the land transaction and construction area of Baicheng was 1.56 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 22.0%; The total transaction price was 4.6 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 12.8%; The average transaction price was 2967 yuan / m2, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 11.8%. The cumulative proportion of uncompleted land in the number of land transactions was 39% (29% from January to November).
By the end of 2021, mainstream real estate enterprises were still cautious in land acquisition and investment, and the number of uncompleted land in a single month in December exceeded the number of completed land. In December 2021, the number of land sold in Baicheng was 1983, and the number of land not sold was 2836; The proportion of uncompleted land in the number of land transactions in a single month was 143% (58% in November). According to Kerui’s statistics, from January to December 2021, the new land value (land acquisition amount) of 50 mainstream real estate enterprises totaled 3.07 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 18.9%; The total new land construction area of 50 mainstream real estate enterprises was 434 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 36.3%.
In terms of urban energy level, residential transactions in first tier cities have changed from positive to negative year-on-year, and the premium rate has continued to decline
1) according to the urban energy level, the transaction and construction area of the first, second and third and fourth lines of 100 cities in December 2021 were 13.77 million square meters, 69.28 million square meters and 66.85 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.2%, – 44.8% and – 66.5% respectively. The total transaction price was 86.6 billion yuan, 269.5 billion yuan and 114.3 billion yuan respectively, which were – 26.0%, – 16.1% and – 68.4% year-on-year in a single month. The average transaction prices were 6284 yuan / m2, 3889 yuan / m2 and 1710 yuan / m2 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 28.3%, + 52.0% and – 5.4% respectively.
2) according to the urban energy level, in December 2021, the transaction and construction areas of the first, second and third and fourth lines (residential) of the land in 100 cities were 3.78 million square meters, 33.86 million square meters and 25 million square meters respectively, with – 10.1%, – 43.0% and – 73.5% (November + 5.6%, – 37.6% and – 44.8% respectively). The total transaction price was 71.6 billion yuan, 244.1 billion yuan and 73.5 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.1%, – 11.5% and – 74.0% respectively. The average transaction prices were 18912 yuan / m2, 7210 yuan / m2 and 2941 yuan / m2 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 3.4%, + 55.2% and – 1.6% respectively. The transaction premium rate of residential land remained low, 1.8%, 3.2% and 3.8% respectively (3.6%, 1.6% and 1.2% in November).
Investment suggestion: on September 24, 2021, the central bank set the tone of “two maintenance”, and dispelled doubts on October 15“ α “Risk” exposure and“ β Coefficient “healthy and stable; On December 20, the central bank explicitly supported high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of large-scale real estate enterprises in danger and difficulties, and real estate enterprises such as Evergrande“ α The “risk” repair enters the implementation stage. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair, and development loans and mortgage loans have continued to pick up; The central bank comprehensively lowered the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points and released 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds, which is more favorable to the “leveraged and stable” private enterprise real estate; The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. The central economic work conference reiterated that “housing is not fried” and then put forward “policies for the city”. We believe that the house purchase restriction measures in some regions will be gradually withdrawn, accelerate the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, and support the reasonable house purchase demand of residents.
At the beginning of 2022, the real estate sector ushered in a “good start”, and high-quality leading real estate enterprises performed well; As of the closing on January 13, Vanke A Rose 8.96%, Vanke enterprises rose 11.08%, China overseas development rose 19.99%, and China Jinmao rose 10.79%; We believe that with the enhancement of the expectation of interest rate reduction in the first quarter of 2022, the credit supply of residents\’ improved housing mortgage loans is expected to be further supported, and the attention and confidence of the capital market in high-quality leading real estate enterprises will be further improved. Focus on Vanke A / Vanke enterprises, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Jinmao, China overseas development, China Resources Land, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; It is recommended to pay attention to Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) and Longhu group.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring, Sino US trade friction may lead to the development and employment of some industries in China less than expected, which will affect residents\’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and the risk of credit default of some real estate enterprises increases.
