Investment advice
View of semiconductor industry: in 2021, the global chip revenue increased by 26% year-on-year, the global wafer foundry increased by 29% year-on-year, the average year-on-year growth of Chinese semiconductor significantly exceeded 50%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company more than doubled year-on-year. The industries with the highest to lowest year-on-year revenue / weighted average growth are chip design (92% / 52%), equipment (85% / 63%), materials (57% / 45%), and wafer foundry (56% / 47%), Compound / power IDM (38% / 14%), and sealed test industry (31% / 22%). In the first quarter of 2022, the average year-on-year growth of China’s semiconductor revenue still exceeded 50%, and the year-on-year growth of net profit attributable to the parent company was still nearly times. However, except that the wafer foundry industry continued to accelerate due to the shortage and price rise of 5-10 points, the year-on-year growth of revenue in other industries slowed down by about 15 points. The industry with the highest year-on-year revenue / weighted average growth in China was chip design wafer foundry (75% / 70%), Chip design (72% / 22%), equipment (70% / 57%), materials (42% / 41%), packaging and testing industry (26% / 26%), and compound / power IDM (24% / 23%).
View of electronics industry: strong demand for new energy + domestic substitution, high growth of power semiconductor sector in the first quarter. The revenue of the electronics industry in 2021 was 2880.7 billion yuan, an increase of 15% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 182.2 billion yuan, an increase of 95% at the same time; The revenue of 2022q1 was 643 billion yuan, a decrease of 1% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 34.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% at the same time. The decrease of 22q1 performance was mainly due to the weakness of downstream consumer electronics, the impact of the epidemic, the rise in the price of upstream raw materials, etc. Power semiconductors benefited from the strong demand in the new energy market + domestic substitution, and the boom continued in 22q1. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of power semiconductor sector increased by 79% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 power semiconductor sector increased by 53% year-on-year. Among them, the performance of automobile connector 22q1 increased by 27%. Affected by weak downstream demand, epidemic situation and upstream price rise, the profit of 22q1 decreased by 15%. The boom structure of the electronics industry is seriously divided, the downstream consumer electronics and communication market demand is weak, and the demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power storage is strong. Continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of electronic semiconductors for new energy and intelligent vehicles, focusing on the industrial chain of silicon carbide, IGBT, thin film capacitor and intelligent driving; Consumer electronics is mainly optimistic about AR / VR, folding screen mobile phone innovation, etc; PCB is mainly optimistic about vehicles, servers, etc.
View of the communication industry: the overall performance of the communication sector is stable and good, and the value distribution is transferred to the new generation ICT industry chain. In 2021, the overall revenue of the communication sector was 427.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.46%. Affected by the epidemic situation and supply chain fluctuations, the segments of 2022q1 are divided. The growth rate of communication components (+ 28.74%), optical modules and devices (+ 27.04%), cloud video (+ 26.25%), optical communication (+ 20.05%) and communication equipment (+ 17.91%) ranked among the top five. Cloud computing, optical fiber and cable, military communications, antenna RF and Internet of things grew by 5% ~ 10%. Continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities in the communication sector under the two main lines: first, the leading companies with good market pattern and scale effect in the supply chain of new ICT infrastructure such as 5g, cloud, optical network, IOT perception and satellite Internet; Second, in the scenario of the integration of communication and vertical industries, including the high growth segment leaders in the tracks of emerging industries such as aiot, digital energy and smart cars.
View of computer industry: we focus on the layout opportunities of leaders in the fields of financial technology, information security and artificial intelligence. In terms of computer operation data, the prosperity of the sector is high, and the operation in the first quarter is less affected by the epidemic. In 2021, the revenue of computer sector reached 1.1 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%; The non net profit deducted by the sector reached 40.6 billion, a slight decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, which is expected to be affected by factors such as the resumption of social security payment. In terms of market situation, the computer slightly outperformed the gem index in Q1 of the 22nd year, and the institutional attention of the smart car sector increased. By the end of the 21st century, the positions of sector institutions accounted for 3.96%; By Q1 of 22, the proportion of positions held by sector institutions fell to 2.99%. In 2021, the top ten heavy positions in the sector were basically stable, and companies such as artificial intelligence, financial technology and cloud computing received institutional attention. In Q1 2022, the number of institutional positions in the smart car sector increased, and the number of positions in cloud computing and industrial software decreased relatively.
Recomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomcombinations: Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) .
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles / mobile phones is lower than expected, the intelligent configuration is not as expected, and the valuation is high
