Home furnishing: the relaxation of real estate from bottom to top is expected to exceed expectations, and look for the strongest alpha under valuation repair. The real estate data fell more than expected. It is expected that the relaxation of real estate from bottom to top is expected to exceed expectations. It is expected that the decline of 22q3 sales data will narrow and 22q4 will return to positive, and the annual decline is expected to be – 5% – 10%; In addition, the epidemic affects short-term dynamic sales, but household consumption is relatively rigid. The leaders disperse the pace of promotion and strengthen channel support. It is expected that the consumption replenishment after the epidemic, the industry concentration will accelerate, the quarterly growth rate is expected to increase, and the EPS & valuation is expected to double. Software home recommends Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , which has the retail thinking and continuous verification of the big home model, and focuses on Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) & Minhua holdings, which has the largest demand elasticity in the stock market and is in the dividend period of product & channel; Customized home is the first to promote card traffic entrance & Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ; Focus on Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) & Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , diversified Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) , and Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) with reduced bulk risk and high retail growth.
New type of tobacco: the overseas penetration rate has increased steadily, and the details of China’s strict regulatory policies have been gradually introduced. Overseas: PMTA landing accelerated. Njoy ace authorized by PMTA only authorized tobacco flavor. The essence of e-cigarette harm reduction remained the focus of attention. The subsequent adoption of British American Tobacco became clearer and the market share accelerated to concentrate. Philip Morris International & Japan Tobacco released the first quarter report of 2022. Among them, 1) Philip Morris International: excluding the Russian and Ukrainian markets, the penetration rate of iqos in major countries in the world reached 7.5% (+ 1.1pct), and the number of users reached 17.9 million (+ 1 million), of which the user conversion rate remained high at 71%; 2) Japan Tobacco: the market share of new-type tobacco in Japan has continuously increased to 33.4%, of which the market share of Japan Tobacco is 12.0% (+ 2.2pct). China: the policy was implemented successively in April, the benefit pattern of production / brand / wholesale / retail was gradually clear, the essence of product harm reduction and tobacco replacement will become the main theme of development, and the market is expected to resume vigorous development. Continue to pay attention to the global atomization technology leader, deeply bind the global key customers, and the sectors such as disposable small smoke, HNB, marijuana atomization, medical atomization and beauty atomization are expected to contribute to the incremental SIMORE international.
Special paper: high degree of price increase and clear growth of leading enterprises. Benefiting from the substitution of paper for plastics, domestic substitution and products going to sea, the growth space of special paper has been opened, the production capacity of leading enterprises has expanded rapidly and the product layout has been diversified; In addition, the rapid rise of 21q4 Energy & wood pulp cost has put pressure on corporate profits. At present, the pressure of energy cost has been relieved, the price has been raised and the corporate profits have been gradually repaired. Continue to recommend Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , with diversified product layout and clear growth path, and focus on Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) , Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) .
Bulk paper: pulp and paper are high-level consolidation, and waste paper is expected to rise. 1) Pulp and paper system: at present, the supply form of the international pulp market is still severe. In May, the quotation of global suppliers rose again. At present, the prices of coniferous pulp / broad-leaved pulp are in the historical 100% quantile. It is expected that the high volatility trend of short-term pulp price will continue; In May, large-scale paper mills still mainly supported the price, and the paper price is expected to remain high. 2) Waste paper: China’s logistics recovery accelerated. Shanying raised the price by 100 yuan / ton on May 8, and there is still a shutdown plan. It is expected that the price rise trend of finished paper will continue after the festival. Pay attention to the Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , which has sustained production capacity, clear market growth and integrated forestry, pulp and paper. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) , Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) .
Consumption: the epidemic affects demand and grasps the long-term value. Under the influence of the epidemic in March, the transportation and logistics were blocked and the delivery was not smooth, and the performance of Q1, the leading consumer, was under pressure. With the recovery of demand after the epidemic, continue to pay attention to Chenguang shares, which has deep traditional business barriers & new business performance continues to exceed expectations, consolidate the foundation of offline channels & steadily promote the reform of online channels Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , optimize the product structure & improve the layout of all channels & re sort out the upward C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) .
Packaging: the impact of raw materials is slowing down, the depreciation of RMB is good, and the profit can be repaired. 1) Paper packaging: with the year-on-year decline of paper price, the slowdown of cost pressure and the downward trend of exchange rate, 3C packaging is recommended to grow steadily, the second growth curve of tobacco and alcohol packaging is set up smoothly, and the upgrading of product structure is expected to drive Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , attention Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) . 2) Metal packaging: the increase of canning rate drives the demand upward, and the optimization of pattern boosts the leading bargaining power. Under this background, it is suggested to pay attention to the steady growth of three piece cans – the improvement of the bargaining power of two piece cans, the prominent integration of can making + filling + Packaging design, and cut into food and beverage to create a second growth curve and a diversified Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) . Export: the economy is still booming, and the profit inflection point is gradually emerging. Sea freight continues to decline month on month, the depreciation of RMB exchange rate is good for exports, raw material prices mostly enter the downward channel, and the pressure of multiple factors slows down, which is expected to release profit elasticity. Select Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) , Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) , Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) , focus on Henglin Home Furnishings Co.Ltd(603661) , Ue Furniture Co.Ltd(603600) , which have stable valuation bottom and stable demand, and rely on the steady growth of demand or independent brands.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation has been repeated, the real estate has fallen more than expected, and the cost has risen more than expected.
