Investment advice
Large consumption Q1 was impacted by the epidemic, but its performance was better than that in the beginning of the 20th century. After the disclosure of the first quarterly report of 22 years, due to the repeated epidemic situation and economic pressure across the country, the total net profit of large consumption (excluding the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry with significant losses caused by the downward cycle) was 115.34 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3% at the same time. Although the epidemic still had a great impact on terminal demand, compared with the beginning of the 20th century, food and beverage and household appliances showed strong business resilience, with an increase of 18.1% / 11.0% respectively, supporting the overall performance of large consumption.
Food and beverage / household appliances lead the way, and the boom of sub circuit continues. The performance leading food and beverage and household appliances industries continued to grow steadily, especially Baijiu and white appliances with large net profits. The demand of other industries declined significantly. The overall pressure of the industry was caused by the decline of pig cycle in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and light industry manufacturing / trade retail / social services declined under the influence of the epidemic. It is worth noting that the boom segment still maintained growth, and trade / textile manufacturing / medical beauty / professional services all achieved a growth rate of more than 20%.
Focus on the main line, give consideration to defense, and continue to embrace the leading consumer. At present, the main lines of large consumption investment are: 1) food and beverage with strong certainty; 2) Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery with gradually reversed cycle and benefiting from inflation; 3) The epidemic has a great impact on social services, commerce and retail waiting for repair. Throughout the three main lines, we think we should pay more attention to defense. The US dollar interest rate hike cycle plus pessimism suppressed the valuation level, and high-quality targets entered the cost performance range. The consumption leader can cross the cycle with its own competitive advantage, and does not rely too much on epidemic deduction or cycle reversal. Large market value can be selected, and the growth rate of 22q1 is higher than the expected target, which is both defensive and offensive.
Market Review
Rise and fall: most of the primary industries of large consumption showed a trend of low before and high after last week, and generally rebounded on Friday. Textile and clothing (- 9.9%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 7.1%) and light industry manufacturing (- 5.7%) led the decline, while food and beverage (+ 0.7%) led the increase.
Turnover: the overall average daily turnover of large consumer industries was 154.47 billion yuan, up 0.4% week on week, accounting for 17.3% of the overall daily turnover of a shares.
Capital flow
A-share liquidity tracking: capital outflow narrowed. Equity financing – 29.84 billion yuan; Shareholders’ reduction of – 1.09 billion yuan; New Development Fund + 4.73 billion yuan; Financing fund – 20.99 billion yuan; Land port link capital + 2.91 billion yuan.
Main capital flow: most industries are in a net outflow state, and the net outflow amount of main capital in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, textile and clothing industries is large Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (food and beverage), Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) (media), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (Commerce and retail) ranked first in the net inflow of main funds.
Northward capital flow: the northward capital flow of various industries returns to the net inflow state, and the northward net capital flow of food and beverage, household appliances and commercial retail industries ranks first Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (food and beverage), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (household appliances), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (household appliances) ranked first in the amount of net capital inflow to the north.
Southward capital flow: last week, the net inflow of southward capital in leisure services, textile and clothing and commercial trade industries ranked first. Tencent Holdings (media), meituan-w (social services) and Kwai (media) ranked first in the amount of net capital inflow to the south.
Transaction dynamics
Market sentiment: financing transactions accounted for 5.79% (5.5% last week); Seller Recommendation Index 704.0, comment season; The turnover rate of Shanghai stock market was 1.0% (0.8% last week), and that of Shenzhen stock market was 2.2% (1.9% last week).
Hot topics: big consumption, Yuan universe, Baijiu, white appliances, virtual reality.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk and continuous external shock risk.
