Sector market review
This week (04 / 25-04 / 29), the transportation index fell 2.3%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.1%, underperformed the market by 2.4%, ranking 17 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the express sector increased the most (4.1%), and the public transport sector decreased the most (- 8.9%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: express delivery performance is repaired quarterly, and logistics services continue to recover. Since early March, the epidemic has been repeated in many places across the country, which has a great impact on the express service, and the express business volume has declined. According to the statistics of the State Post Office, the express business volume decreased by 3.1% year-on-year in March, and the express business revenue decreased by 4.2% year-on-year. The truck logistics intensity picked up 7% month on month this week, and the recovery of express service is expected. The performance of express delivery enterprises has entered the cashing period. In 2021q4, Zhongtong, Yunda, Yuantong and Shunfeng have achieved rapid recovery of profits, with profit growth rates of 37%, 81%, 202% and 43% respectively. The loss of Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) Q4 has expanded due to the significant provision for asset impairment. In 2022q1, the profits of Yuantong and Yunda increased by 135% and 52% year-on-year. SF and Shentong turned losses into profits. SF’s performance increased significantly mainly due to (1) continuous focus on core logistics strategy and emphasis on sustainable and healthy development; (2) Optimize the product structure and reduce the number of products with low gross profit; (3) Adhere to lean cost control; (4) Business profitability improved and new businesses reduced losses year-on-year; (5) Merge Kerry Logistics from 2021q4. The peak of capital expenditure of express companies may have passed, and the profit in 2022 is expected to continue to repair. Recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Zhongtong express, pay attention to Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) .
Logistics: the performance growth of chemical logistics is determined, and the demand of Tob supply chain is broad. There is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After the accidents such as Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and so on, the supervision becomes stricter, which limits the supply of the industry, the demand side still increases every year, and the performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics, and enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win. In 2021, the growth rate for 2021 will be the growth rate of the performance growth in 2021: the growth rate for the 2021 year of the 2021 year of the 2021 ”’ 3 + 45%, Xingtong shares + 7%. Recommend Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) , Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) , pay attention to Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) .
Airport: the short-term performance will still be under pressure, and the industry recovery needs to wait. The number of new cases decreased this week, the travel guidance in many places was still limited, and the recovery of aviation demand was restrained. The transportation volume in China decreased by 86% year-on-year and the price decreased by 14% year-on-year. (1) In 2021, affected by the repeated epidemic and the rise of oil price, the loss of airlines further expanded. The net losses attributable to the parent company of Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines were – 16.6, – 12.1 and – 12.2 billion yuan respectively, of which China Southern Airlines made an asset impairment provision of 2.596 billion yuan for aircraft and related equipment Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) turning losses into profits, with a net profit of 39 million yuan Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) the net loss attributable to the parent company was -498 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5% China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) net loss attributable to the parent company was RMB -99 million, a year-on-year decrease of 116%. In 2022q1, affected by the epidemic, the net interest rates of airlines fell sharply, and the industry reappeared to the dark moment. (2) The stagnation of international lines and the repeated outbreaks in China further expanded the losses of the four major airports in 2021 Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) net profit attributable to parent company is – 17.1, -21.2, -410.0 and – 30 million yuan respectively. In the short term, the epidemic situation in China is still continuing, the short-term performance of airlines is still under pressure, and the recovery still needs to wait; At the same time, vaccines and covid-19 oral drugs will strengthen the covid-19 prevention and control system and help production and life return to normal. After the impact of the epidemic is eliminated, the airport operation of the aviation company will be significantly improved, and the investment value of the sector will be highlighted. We pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: CCFI decreased by 0.4% month on month, and SCFI decreased by 0.4% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI decreased by 15% month on month and increased by 107% year on year; The refined oil transportation index bcti increased by 17% month on month and 167% year-on-year. With the global economic recovery, the demand for oil transportation has gradually recovered, and the supply side is limited by the demolition of old ships, environmental protection policies and slipway capacity. It is suggested to pay attention to the oil transportation sector.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
