Summary of 21 years & 22q1: the epidemic repeatedly affected the recovery of the industry. The epidemic returned to China 225 years ago. Covid-19 epidemic occurred repeatedly in 21 years, and China’s tourism industry recovered slightly compared with 20 years. The number of Chinese tourists recovered to 54% in the same period of 19 years, and the tourism revenue recovered to 51% in the same period of 19 years. In March 22, the epidemic situation in China repeatedly affected travel and tourism in China. In the 21st year, the net loss of non deduction of tourism industry was significantly narrowed year-on-year (calculated after excluding China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ). 22q1 was repeatedly affected by the epidemic, and the operation of Companies in the tourism industry was damaged again. The revenue decreased by 12.4%, and the net loss deducted from the non net loss expanded to – 1.7 billion yuan.
Investment strategy in the second half of 22 years: we believe that similar to 22q1, the second half of 22 years is still dominated by the logic of epidemic repair. In the duty-free section, China’s epidemic situation is improving and new stores are put into use, which will drive the tax-free volume and price of Hainan outlying islands to rise simultaneously; In the hotel sector, the supply and demand pattern has improved significantly, the chain rate has increased, the hotel group has accelerated the integration of monomers, and the improvement of China’s epidemic situation will contribute to greater performance flexibility; In the section of the scenic spot, the state of passenger flow suppressed by the epidemic is expected to be improved, resulting in the gradual recovery of performance; The chain catering section still maintains a fast speed of expanding stores, and the same store data is better; The outbound tourism section depends more on the progress of the global epidemic and the expectation of entry-exit liberalization.
Investment suggestions: from the perspective of allocation, it is suggested to focus on: (1) companies with resilient performance in the epidemic, such as tax-free section ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ) and human resources service section ( Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) ); (2) Companies that still expand rapidly against the trend in the epidemic and have greater flexibility after the epidemic is repaired, such as the hotel section ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Huazhu group-s) and the chain catering section (jiumaojiu and hailun company). From the perspective of game, it is suggested to focus on the post epidemic repair of other epidemic damaged stocks, such as scenic area sections ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) etc.) and outbound tourism sections.
Risk warning: the industry is greatly affected by the repeated epidemic situation; The risk of more concentrated customers in the human resources service industry; The risk of policy changes in the education industry; The negative impact of the macroeconomic downturn on the consumer service industry.
