Core view
Internet and content platform: 1) Internet platform: the supervision releases positive signals, completes special rectification and turns to normal supervision. The social value of the platform economy and the irreversible characteristics of cultivating users’ habits are competitive in the long term. It is expected that since the end of 2020, the pressure on the regulatory level will be reduced, and the performance and valuation will be repaired. This Politburo meeting proposed to introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy. We believe that it is an obvious signal of the recovery of supervision, and the performance and valuation of subsequent relevant companies are expected to be repaired. Under the epidemic, the social value of the platform economy is prominent, and most users have been educated and completed. Various online platforms have become the basic lifestyle of more residents. The subsequent sinking of consumption habits and the expansion of the market will promote the improvement of market scale. 2) Content platform: the driving force of growth has shifted from the growth of user scale to the improvement of user payment, and the cost reduction and efficiency increase are continuously promoted. ① Due to the supervision and epidemic situation, the performance of long video platform 4q21 is under pressure in the short term, and the advertising revenue in 22 years may pick up when the economy picks up and the epidemic situation recovers. ② Long video is in the price increase cycle, paying attention to the member price and driving the increase of member income. Aiteng youmang has increased its member prices year by year, and attracting users to pay mainly depends on high-quality content. At present, the development momentum of self-made dramas and self-made variety shows on various platforms is good, and the member payment rate is expected to be improved. ③ The era of extensive expansion has passed, and the effect of cost reduction and efficiency increase has begun to show, which will continue to be promoted in the future. Iqiyi, BiliBili, Kwai and other companies’ 4q22 losses have narrowed, and the effect of cost reduction and efficiency increase has initially shown.
E-commerce platform: 1) steady growth sector: ① comprehensive e-commerce. Policies have been implemented in an orderly manner and normalized supervision has been implemented. Performance side: the e-commerce landscape is strongly related to the consumption boom. The short-term transport capacity pressure is expected to be replenished from May to June, and the self operated e-commerce has better toughness, such as jd.com. Profit side: focus on the profit release after optimizing the sales expenses of the marketing platform, such as pinduoduo. New business: the e-commerce platform focuses on long-term high-quality development, and the strategic business changes to fine operation, cost reduction and efficiency increase. ② Cross border e-commerce: rise in raw materials + rise in freight rates + Amazon’s closure of illegal operations, and the superposition of multiple pressures has affected the performance of some cross-border buyers. The recent devaluation of RMB is good for the exchange of cross-border export e-commerce. The growth of cross-border sellers has entered a stable period. In the era of brand going to sea, we pay attention to cross-border e-commerce brands with strong brand power, digital ability and operation ability, such as Anker Innovations Technology Co.Ltd(300866) . 2) High growth sector: ① industrial Internet: the platform has a deeper understanding of vertical industries, and the development path is mostly from providing transactions to providing services. It pays attention to “platform + technology + data”, the industrial B2B platform Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) , with continuous growth momentum, and the rural B2B platform convergence network with deep cultivation and sinking terminal retail and clear profit optimization path. ② Internet Medical: it forms a synergistic effect with the flow / logistics empowerment of e-commerce platform, and the penetration rate of online pharmaceutical retail and consultation is gradually increasing. Pay attention to Jingdong health with beautiful revenue and profit growth. ③ Fresh e-commerce: under the short-term epidemic, the timeliness of distribution and the certainty of performance are strong, undertaking more consumer demand, and the customer unit price and order volume are significantly boosted. The penetration rate of long-term key areas is expected to be further improved, and the procurement cost and performance cost are expected to be continuously optimized after large-scale. Pay attention to dingdong shopping.
Core recommended targets: Tencent holdings, meituan-w, JD group-sw
Risk tips: industry policy risks; The repeated epidemic has led to the risk that the recovery of advertising and offline consumption is less than expected; Game products or content online less than expected risk
