[photovoltaic equipment] embrace new technological changes and select leaders
[photovoltaic equipment] industry core logic: the growth space depends on the iteration speed of new technologies
1) the new photovoltaic technology has a rapid iteration (continuous cost reduction), and the photovoltaic equipment with continuous iteration of new technology will still have good growth in the next few years.
2) there is a large space in the downstream market of photovoltaic (10 times the new installed capacity in 10 years) + the industry has the ability of platform extension (layout to other pan semiconductor industries), so that photovoltaic equipment is one of the few industries in the special equipment industry [which can grow into large companies].
3) risk warning: the realization of full parity of medium and long-term photovoltaic will reduce the urgency of technical iteration demand, and the investment opportunities of [photovoltaic equipment] will decline.
Company recommendation: focus on two links and choose the leader with platform ability
1. [battery equipment] hjt technological transformation brings both volume and price rise. It is expected that the order space of hjt equipment is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025 and 80% CAGR in 20202025. If the net interest rate remains 20% (8 billion net profit), 25 times PE will be given, and it is estimated that the reasonable total market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan. Key recommendations: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Sichuan Injet Electric Co.Ltd(300820) ; Watch Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) .
2. [component equipment] welcome the multiple technological changes of “slicing + multiple main grids + multiple slices”, with stable price and increased volume. It is estimated that the global component expansion is expected to reach 392gw in 2025, of which the market scale of series welding machine will reach 7.8 billion yuan, CAGR = 26%. Key recommendations: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) .
3. [platform leader] extends to the pan semiconductor field. Recommendations: Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Sichuan Injet Electric Co.Ltd(300820) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , etc.
