Main points
The home appliance sector rose 0.1% this week, of which the white electricity / Black electricity / kitchen electricity / small household appliances sectors were + 0.4% / – 3.1% / – 0.6% / – 1.9% respectively. In terms of raw material prices, LME copper, LME aluminum, steel and plastic prices were – 4.0%, – 6.3%, – 1.6% and – 2.1% month on month, respectively. In terms of exchange rate, the RMB has depreciated recently, and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased by 3.4% compared with mid April.
Annual report & summary of the first quarterly report: grasp the two main lines of high prosperity and bottom rebound. Revenue side: household appliance consumption recovered in 21 years, with revenue + 15.5% year-on-year (compound 19 years + 8.5%). By sector, household appliances (+ 35%), integrated stoves (+ 39%) and white electricity (+ 16%) performed well. The small kitchen electricity meter in 21 years is slightly weak (income + 10%, compound 19 years + 11%), and the small kitchen boom in 22q1 has recovered (21q3 / 21q4 / 22q1: + 3% / + 2% / + 8%). Profit side: under the multiple pressures of raw material price, shipping cost and exchange rate, the profitability of the industry is slightly under pressure, and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company of the industry fell by 0.3pct in 21 years. The peak growth rate of raw materials is 21q2-q3, and the cost pressure 21q4 is transmitted to the statement end. The year-on-year decline of net interest rate of each segment of single Q4 is 1-2pct, and 22q1 has been repaired, and the decline has narrowed to less than 1PCT, mainly because the peak growth rate of raw materials has passed and the main companies actively adjust the product structure, and the decline of gross profit rate has narrowed significantly.
Industry online data release in March: from the perspective of category performance, the sales of air conditioners continued the growth trend, with total sales of + 5% in March, including exports of + 7% (slower than February), and domestic sales increased slightly (+ 3%); 22q1 achieved positive growth in total sales (+ 2%), flat domestic sales (- 1%), and steady growth in exports (+ 5%). Refrigerator: sales in March (- 7%) were relatively weak, dragged down by (- 4%) inside and (- 10%) outside; 22q1 sales volume (- 5%), of which export sales decreased significantly (- 8%) due to the high base pressure in the early stage. Washing machines: the pressure was obvious in March, with double-digit decline in total sales (- 15%) / domestic sales (- 11%) / export sales (- 19%); 22q1’s total sales (- 10%) were weak, while exports (- 14%) were significantly dragged down.
The signal of air conditioning production scheduling in May was positive. In May, the production scheduling of household air conditioning industry is expected to increase by 7.2% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year, of which domestic sales increased by 12.4% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year; Exports fell by 5.5% over the same period last year. The second quarter entered the peak season of air conditioning sales, and the three major white domestic production scheduling overweight was prepared for the peak season. The domestic production scheduling of Gree, Midea and Haier in May was + 9%, + 31% and + 8% respectively compared with last year, and the total production scheduling was + 7%, + 6% and + 25% respectively compared with last year.
Investment advice
1) it is at the bottom of the development trend of home appliance industry, including the integration of home appliance industry and projector industry; The performance of the first quarter continues to be verified, and it is recommended to actively layout at this stage. It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic intelligent micro investment leader with leading technology and all-round barriers to consumer goods Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) . The logic of improving the penetration rate of integrated stoves has been continuously verified by data, and Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which has long-term vision of leading strategic pattern, strong brand marketing and channel power and rapid expansion of scale, is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , which has strong product power and continuously reflects the effectiveness of the change of the few owners.
2) demand and profit continue to repair, and white electricity and small kitchen appliances are expected to usher in an inflection point in the second quarter. The epidemic situation has accelerated the demand for goods at home, and the data of refrigerators and freezers in March has been verified; There is also a logic of delayed consumption release in the small household appliance sector. White power recommends focusing on Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , which conforms to the demand of consumption upgrading, Casati maintains high growth, improves efficiency and governance optimization, and continuously improves its profitability. The epidemic catalysed the demand for home cooking, which is expected to benefit from the centralized release of Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) .
Risk tips
The risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected demand, the risk of repeated outbreaks, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and the risk of chip out of stock and rising prices.
