\u3000\u3000 Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816)
Key investment points
The performance forecast for 2021 is in line with our expectations. On January 13, 2022, the company disclosed the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.65-1.73 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 95% – 105% (19% – 22% compared with the two-year compound growth rate in 2019); The central bank is RMB 1.69 billion, with a compound growth rate of 20.6% over the two years in 2019; It is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 1.42-15 billion after deduction from non parent company, a year-on-year increase of + 140% – 154% (29% – 33% compared with the two-year compound growth rate in 2019); The central bank was RMB 1.46 billion, with a compound growth rate of 31% compared with the two years in 2019.
The corresponding growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 2021q4 is RMB 410-490 million. According to the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is RMB 410-490 million, 30-42% higher than the two-year compound growth rate in Q4 in 2019; The central bank was 450 million yuan, 36% higher than the two-year compound growth rate of 2019q4. The net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021q4 is RMB 310-390 million, with a compound growth rate of 29% – 45% compared with that in 2019q4; The central bank was RMB 350 million, with a compound growth rate of 37% compared with 2019.
The profit side accelerated significantly in 2021q4. In 2021q1-3, the year-on-year growth rate of the company’s operating revenue was 65.3%, 64.5% and 41.4% respectively, 24.0%, 28.8% and 37.3% respectively compared with the two-year compound growth rate in the same period in 2019; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 25.6%, 43.9% and 7.2% respectively, which was 14.2%, 21.3% and 13.9% respectively compared with the two-year compound growth rate in the same period of 2019. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is significantly higher than the two-year compound growth rate in 2019q4.
The reform of domestic retail has accumulated strength for long-term development, and is optimistic about the continuous deepening of the big home line. The company continues to improve the layout of large household categories on the product side, deepen the channel reform of large store mode on the channel side, and the retail capacity continues to evolve. Specifically reflected in the improvement of retail turnover rate and the continuous enhancement of channel profitability, forming a strong endogenous growth drive; At the same time, capacity expansion laid the foundation for medium – and long-term growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the strategic path of the company’s domestic big home is becoming clearer, and the expansion of overseas production capacity will help to further improve the share and maintain the previous profit forecast. We expect the company’s net profit from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1.71 billion, 2.08 billion and 2.52 billion respectively, corresponding to pe23, 19 and 16x. As a leader in the soft furniture industry, the company has made solid progress in the retail home strategy, opened the growth ceiling and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies, raw material prices rise, exchange rate fluctuations, freight increases, etc.
