1.1 PV installed capacity in China: 54.9gw will be added in 2021 and 13.2gw in 22q1
In 2021, China's PV installed capacity increased by 54.88gw, with an increase of 13.9%, including centralized 25.6gw and distributed 29.3gw, with distributed new installed capacity accounting for 53.4%.
22q1 China's PV installed capacity increased by 13.21gw, an increase of 148%, of which 3.35gw was newly installed, an increase of 13%.
1.2 China's exports: 100.55gw of components will be exported in 2021 and 41.30gw in 2022q1
In 2021, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was 100.55gw, with a year-on-year increase of 25.65%. The highest proportion of exports were the Netherlands, India, Brazil, Japan and Australia.
In 2022q1, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was 41.30gw, with a year-on-year increase of 108.5%, mainly due to the high prosperity of overseas markets. In 22q1, Europe and India exported 16.80 GW and 9.58gw respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 111% and 373% respectively.
1.3 price of industrial chain: the supply and demand of silicon materials are tight, and the price of industrial chain rises comprehensively
Affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the price of the industrial chain rose in an all-round way in 2021. In 2021, the price of dense materials rose by 177%, the price of monocrystalline silicon rose by 54%, the price of single crystal battery rose by 13%, and the price of single crystal components rose by 13%. 22q1 still continued to rise.
Looking ahead, considering the factors such as the construction of new production capacity and climbing, and the transportation efficiency of imported silicon materials affected by the epidemic, the release rate of silicon material supply may be slower than expected in 2022. Under the background of the continuous upward demand intensity at the downstream outside China, the tension between silicon material supply and demand may continue to the second half of the year. It is expected that the price of the industrial chain will continue to remain high in the next 1-2 quarters, or even continue to rise in stages.
Risk tips
Risk of deterioration of international trade environment: as the proportion of photovoltaic in the energy structure of various countries continues to increase, China, as a dominant player in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, may still face more stringent trade barriers in other countries (although such barriers may lead to an increase in the cost of using clean energy in the country).
The epidemic repeatedly caused the risk that the global economic recovery was lower than expected: the negative impact of the epidemic on power demand and its growth rate exceeded expectations, resulting in that even though the cost of photovoltaic has decreased significantly and become the cheapest power supply, the installed power is still insufficient to support the sustained and rapid growth of demand.
Risk of irrational expansion of industry capacity: under the background of clear dual carbon objectives, the capacity expansion of photovoltaic industry has accelerated significantly, and there are signs of large-scale entry of cross-border capital again, which may lead to the risk of phased competition pattern and deterioration of profitability in some links.
The decline of energy storage cost is less than expected: configuring energy storage is the only way for photovoltaic to achieve high proportion penetration in the future power structure. If the decline rate of energy storage cost is less than expected or the safety of battery energy storage is not recognized, it may limit the penetration rate of photovoltaic in the energy structure in the medium term.
