Basic conclusion
At present, the epidemic is spreading in many places, and many regions, including first tier cities, are affected. Different degrees of control measures lead to the lack of consumption scenes, and the catering and retail ends are affected to varying degrees. From the data of social zero, the total amount of social zero in March 2022 was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.5%. Among the required consumption, in March 2022, grain, oil and food were + 12.5%, beverages + 12.6%, tobacco and alcohol + 7.2% and daily necessities – 0.8% year-on-year. Food and beverage remained resilient under pressure.
Baijiu: it has limited influence in the off-season, and the determination of Wulu to raise prices is obvious. Disturbed by the epidemic situation in East China and other regions in the month, the consumption scene of Baijiu was limited, and the consumption demand was relatively low. However, April was a traditional off-season for Baijiu consumption, and the proportion of mobile sales was expected to account for about 6% of the whole year, which weakened the impact of external risk impact on the performance of the sector to a certain extent. At present, according to the disclosed performance, the overall performance of high-end liquor is stable, and the secondary high-end liquor is slightly differentiated. At present, it is still the first to promote high-end wine, with benign inventory and strong certainty; It is suggested to pay attention to elastic sub high-end and local wine. The rhythm of product upgrading and regional expansion is expected to recover after the epidemic.
Beer & Beverage: in March, the demand & cost was under pressure, the transmission of price increase was smooth, and the progress of epidemic prevention and control in peak season was concerned. Industry: Beer Enterprises above Designated Size nationwide achieved an output of 2.849 million tons in March, a year-on-year increase of – 10.3%; The output from January to march was 8.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of – 1.5%, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. Looking forward to April, the probability of green beer is better than that in March, but the degree is not necessarily particularly large. Individual stocks: Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, short-term demand disturbance, production and logistics obstruction or increased supply costs. Nongnongshan spring had a good sales in March, and the epidemic gave birth to the hoarding of large packaged water. Cost tracking: the prices of raw materials and packaging materials are mostly flat or down month on month, and the year-on-year increase of aluminum materials is narrowed. The logic of “high-end + operation efficiency improvement” in the medium and long term remains unchanged. It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of epidemic prevention and control in peak seasons, and the leader has long-term configuration value.
Food: 1) dairy products: in March 2022, the national output of dairy products was 2.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. The revenue growth of dairy enterprises is still stable, and the price of raw milk has dropped year-on-year, but most of the feed prices at the breeding end are still high, which has a certain pressure. 2) Condiments: the demand of different categories is differentiated due to the impact of the epidemic. From the online sales in March, Zhongju performs well, Haitian performs stably, Qianhe performs less than expected, and compound condiments companies perform poorly. Other categories are catalyzed by the epidemic, Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) . In terms of cost, the raw material prices of soy sauce, yeast and hot pot bottom materials were still rising moderately in March, the price of glass in packaging materials began to decline, and plastic pet was still at a high level. 3) Snack food & quick freezing: under the disturbance of epidemic situation and base pressure, most companies are under pressure. With the improvement of epidemic situation and the regression of base effect, Q2 is expected to usher in month on month improvement. On the cost side, the oil and flour prices represented by palm oil are at a high level in recent years; The prices of chicken and pork are relatively stable, and the prices of beef and silver carp are under certain pressure.
Investment advice
The national epidemic situation is still under pressure, control measures are generally tightened, and market concerns remain. It is suggested that high value targets with strong layout certainty should pay close attention to the inflection point of post epidemic demand repair. At present, the Baijiu sector is still the first to be promoted, especially the deterministic high-end, focusing on the elastic sub high-end and local liquor. In the popular goods sector, the epidemic control disturbed the consumption scene and logistics transportation, but gave birth to some home consumption. The sector suggests to continue to track the main line of improving fundamentals + slowing down the pressure on the cost side.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk / repeated epidemic risk / regional market competition risk
