Key investment points:
Growth rate of photovoltaic equipment: the growth rate of industry performance in 2021 was 93.7%, and that in 2022q1 was 51.5%. Through the analysis of the regular reports of 15 listed photovoltaic equipment companies such as photovoltaic silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries and modules in the first quarter of 2021 and 2022, we find that the performance growth rate of Companies in the photovoltaic equipment industry continues to maintain a high level. In 2021, the revenue growth rate of 15 photovoltaic equipment listed companies was + 71.3%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was + 93.7%, the growth rate of revenue in 2022q1 was 104.3%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was + 51.5%. We believe that the high growth rate of the industry mainly benefits from: 1) the increasing enthusiasm of downstream production expansion under the background of "double carbon" policy drive and photovoltaic parity; 2) the upgrading of industry technology drives the upgrading frequency of equipment and materials, and the equipment that complies with the cost reduction and efficiency improvement even meets the conditions of "price increase", and the investment of single GW is increased.
Photovoltaic equipment orders: the continuous growth of contract liabilities / inventories in 2022q1 is expected to ensure the high growth of subsequent revenue and performance in 2022. The revenue and performance of photovoltaic equipment companies are mainly driven by orders. Except for silicon wafers, thermal fields, diamond wires and other materials, the company's order to revenue conversion cycle is within one quarter, and the order to revenue conversion cycle of photovoltaic special aircraft equipment is generally about June to December. Considering the equipment replacement and upgrading brought by downstream expansion and new technology iteration, the indicators of newly signed orders and on-hand orders such as contract liabilities / inventory of listed companies of major photovoltaic equipment have maintained a high increase. In 2021, the total inventory of photovoltaic equipment listed companies was 25.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 61%, and the total contract liabilities (advances received) were 16.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60%. 22in Q1, the total inventory of photovoltaic equipment listed companies was 29.52 billion yuan, and the total contract liabilities (accounts received in advance) were 17.91 billion yuan. The continuous growth of orders on hand is expected to ensure the high growth of subsequent performance.
Profit of photovoltaic equipment: the gross profit margin of photovoltaic equipment companies with the concept of technological upgrading and optimization of competition pattern has increased.
In 2021, the overall gross profit margin of photovoltaic equipment listed companies reached 31.6%, a year-on-year increase of -1.7pp, and in 2022q1, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic equipment listed companies reached 24.9%, a year-on-year increase of -9.3pp. From the perspective of branches, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) and other companies mainly engaged in photovoltaic special aircraft equipment benefited from the downstream large-scale upgrading technology iteration. In the second half of 2020 and 2021, the orders of each company were mainly large-scale new products, and the gross profit rate of new products was higher. With the transformation of orders to revenue, the gross profit margin of each company increased significantly. On the contrary, for the companies mainly engaged in silicon wafer materials and consumables, due to the price rise of bulk and raw materials, the competition in the supply of their own products intensifies and complies with the downstream cost reduction demand, the product price has decreased. Except for the companies with relatively good competition pattern such as Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and other companies, the gross profit margin of consumables and materials companies has decreased slightly as a whole.
Photovoltaic equipment cost: the industry's cost control ability continues to improve. In 2021, the total expense rate of photovoltaic equipment listed companies was 12.2%, with a year-on-year rate of -2.7pp, and in 2022q1, the total expense rate of photovoltaic equipment listed companies was 8.7%, with a year-on-year rate of -4.9pp. In 2021, the net interest rate of listed companies of photovoltaic equipment was 17.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.0pp; The net interest rate of 2022q1 photovoltaic equipment listed companies was 14.6%, with a year-on-year increase of -5.1pp. In 2021, the overall roe of photovoltaic equipment listed companies reached 14.8%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.1pp.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to the links with the concept of technology upgrading and the optimization of competition pattern. Driven by the "double carbon" policy and the promotion of photovoltaic parity, the downstream demand of the photovoltaic industry has high certainty and growth. At the same time, under the background of technological upgrading, bulk price increase and intensified industry competition, photovoltaic equipment companies α Attributes gradually appear. Focus on the subject [ Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ] [ Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) ] [ Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ] [ Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) ] [ Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ] [ J.S.Corrugating Machinery Co.Ltd(000821) ]] with strong concept of equipment replacement and upgrading under the background of technical iteration; Focus on the target [ Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) ] with significant competitive advantage under the background of strong demand; Focus on the target [ Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ] [ Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ] [ Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) ] [ Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) ] [ Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) ]] with strong product and business expansion.
Risk tip: the economic growth rate is lower than expected, cash flow risk, and the competitive environment of the industry is deteriorating.
