Main points:
The sales volume of new energy vehicles was affected by the epidemic, but the demand was rigid. When the production demand recovered under the control of the epidemic, the sales volume of Weilai, ideal, Xiaopeng, Nezha and Byd Company Limited(002594) Li in April was 5074 / 4167 / 9002 / 8813 / 106042 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 29% / – 25% / + 75% / + 120% / + 313% and a month-on-month increase of – 49% / – 62% / – 42% / – 27% / + 1%. The sales pressure was mainly affected by the suspension of demand and the stagnation of supply chain and logistics. At the same time, we can also see that the sales performance of Byd Company Limited(002594) and other industries is better than that of the industry, which is due to the limited impact of the epidemic on their own production capacity and supply chain, automatic control of key parts, mining demand for multiple models, and effective delivery guaranteed by national channels, which shows that the demand for new energy vehicles is spontaneous and rigid. With the full resumption of work and production in Jilin, six districts in Shanghai meet the social clearance standards, and the resumption of work and production of the automobile industry chain is promoted in an orderly manner, waiting for the disturbance of the epidemic to subside and the demand rigidity to pick up, driving the new energy vehicle industry chain back on track.
The auction price of Pilbara lithium concentrate is 5650 US dollars / ton, which corresponds to the lithium salt cost of 400000 yuan +, supporting the continuous high lithium price. The transaction price of Pilbara lithium concentrate in the fourth auction is 5650 US dollars / ton (sc5.5, FOB, Port Hedland), an increase of 140% compared with the third auction price of 2350 US dollars / ton. Considering the factors such as grade conversion, freight, exchange rate, processing, taxes and fees, it is estimated that the cost of lithium carbonate is more than 400000 yuan / ton. 5000 tons of lithium carbonate will be delivered in June, Strong support for lithium salt prices to remain high. Recently, affected by the epidemic, some lithium salt downstream enterprises have slightly reduced production, superimposed on the warmer weather, the output of Qinghai Salt Lake has increased, some manufacturers resume production and import increment after maintenance, and the lithium salt price has been slightly corrected; With the epidemic control, the demand for new energy vehicles has recovered rigidly, while the supply of mainstream mines has not increased significantly, the supply and demand of lithium is still tight, and the continuous rise in the price of lithium concentrate has led to the continuous upward movement of industrial chain profits, and enterprises with high-quality lithium resources will directly benefit.
The output of lithium concentrate 22q1 in Australia is stable, the price rises sharply, and the annual supply may not increase significantly. The tension between supply and demand: the output of Pilbara / greenbushes / mtmarion / mtcatlin is 8.14/27.05/10.448600 tons respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 2.5% / + 4.4% / + 6.12% / – 6.5%, and the output remains basically stable; Price: the average selling price is 2650 / 1770 / 1952 / 2178 US dollars / ton respectively, and the price rises sharply. Australian lithium enterprises are optimistic about doubling the price of Q2 lithium concentrate: Pilbara expects the price to easily reach more than US $4000; Mtcatlin said Q2 was priced at US $5000 / ton. The high price of concentrate supports the high price of lithium, and the profits of the industrial chain continue to move upward.
It is suggested to pay attention to: 1. Capacity release, cost pressure relief and gross profit recovery. Battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , etc; Second, supply and demand support the high profit of lithium price and release lithium resource companies: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc; III. clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand of materials in the middle reaches: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; The progress of energy storage and lead-acid substitution is less than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; Production capacity expansion is less than expected and product development is less than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates.
