Zhou Du’s view: on April 29, the first batch of centralized land auction in Shenzhen in 2022 ended, and all eight plots were sold at the top, with an average premium rate of 15%. Central state-owned enterprises, urban investment and talent housing are the main force for land acquisition. In April, the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises continued to be depressed, and the market confidence has not been fundamentally repaired. The statement made at the Political Bureau meeting at the end of the month was relatively positive, and the space for administrative regulation and pre-sale fund supervision and optimization was further opened. The valuation repair driven by short-term policies is expected to continue; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the pain period of this round, the industry pattern is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector is mainly concerned about: one is the strong operating and high credit enterprises with relaxed short-term benefit policies and improved gross profit margin at the land acquisition end, which are expected to seize market share in the medium and long term, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , etc; One is the subject matter of policy game elasticity with certain support for Fundamentals, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , etc. The valuation of the property management sector is at a historically low level. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is expected to bring about the continuous repair of the valuation of high-quality property enterprises, such as country garden service, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Jinke service, xinchengyue service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) the sales of the top 100 continued to be sluggish, and the Political Bureau meeting was expected to be stable; 2) The first batch of central heating in Shenzhen 2022 is relatively high, and the launched plots hit the top.
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover is up month on month, and the short-term pressure remains. From April 23 to April 29, 30000 new houses were sold, up 5.8% month on month; 16000 second-hand houses were sold, up 8.9% month on month. In April (as of April 29), the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 55.3% year-on-year, an increase of 10.8pct compared with March. With the implementation of local policies, the confidence of house purchase is expected to be gradually reshaped. However, due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control and policy time lag in the short term, the transaction is still under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in March 2022, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 3.1pct to 80.2% month on month. 3) Inventories rose month on month and declined steadily in the short term. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 103.25 million square meters, up 1.6% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and real estate market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, the superposition of the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the project and promotion progress, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) Land transactions fell, the premium rate rebounded, and the proportion of the third tier increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 5.988 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 3.806 million square meters, with a month on month decrease of 79.7% and 78.9%; The transaction premium rate was 2.9%, up 0.1pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 30.6% and 69.4% respectively, and the third tier increased by 17.4pct month on month.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: 4.25-5.1 domestic real estate bonds issued 10.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.33 billion yuan month on month; The issuance of overseas bonds was US $240 million, an increase of US $190 million month on month; The issuing interest rate range of key real estate enterprises is 2.79% – 4.9%, and the comparable issuing interest rate is different from that of the previous time. 2) Trust: 4.25-5.1 collective trust issued 780 million yuan, a decrease of 4.09 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: 4.25-5.1 the real estate sector fell 0.96%, underperforming CSI 300 (0.07%); PE (TTM) of real estate sector is 10.66 times, and the valuation is 71.59% in recent five years. 4.25-5.1 the top three net capital inflows from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north are Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; The top three net inflows of southbound funds are China Resources Land, Sun Hung Kai Real Estate and rongchuang services.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
