I. core view
Rating and Strategy: after the short-term rebound or decline of pig price, the logic of capacity removal in the industry is expected to be re valued, and the bottom of individual stock valuation reappears, maintain the “optimistic” rating of pig industry, and firmly recommend four golden pigs. The price of white chicken products has a short-term correction, but the space is limited, and the profitability of all links of the industrial chain is good. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the bottom allocation opportunity of the broiler sector. The operation of high grain prices is conducive to the rise of the profit center of the planting industry and maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry.
1. Aquaculture industry chain
1) pig industry: maintain the “optimistic” rating and continue to recommend four golden pigs. Last week, the appearance price of pigs in Jiangxi Province was 15.09 yuan / kg, up 0.51 yuan per week; Piglets were 29.09 yuan / kg, up 1.29 yuan per week; Binary sows were 33.57 yuan / kg, up 0.53 yuan per week. The average head loss of the self breeding and autotrophic model is estimated to be 279 yuan, 97 yuan less than that of last week. The recent rebound in pig prices is mainly affected by the obstruction of pig transportation and the lack of short-term supply caused by the pressure bar at the breeding end. With the ease of transportation, the rebound of pig price may end and return to the bottom. In our view, we believe that the logic of the industry’s ability to strip away from the industry’s capacity is expected to be resurpicked by the market, and the indicators such as the market capitalization of the first of breed companies, the market cap of the first of breed companies, the market cap of the first of breed companies, and so on are expected to return to the bottom of history. The safety margin of investment is rising. We maintain the “good” rating on the sector, continue to recommend Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 71714 \, tianbang.
2) white chicken industry: maintain optimistic rating and focus on prebiotics and Minhe. Last week, the average price of chicken seedlings in the main production area was 2.92 yuan / feather, down 0.46 yuan per week; The average price of wool chicken was 4.62 yuan / kg, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. The price of chicken products is above the cost line, and the space for further correction is limited. In terms of production capacity, at the end of March, the inventory of parents’ generation in production decreased by 4.7% and 11.7%, lower than the annual average of 8.8%. The decrease in the production stock of parents’ generation will be delayed by 2 months, which is reflected in the release of hairy chickens. It is expected that the supply of broilers will be tight in May and the pressure of price correction will be small. In addition, the recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in European and American countries may affect China’s introduction, and the industry supply contraction and medium-term price rise are expected to increase. The valuation index of breeding companies fell back to the historical bottom range, and it is strongly recommended to pay attention to the bottom allocation opportunity of broiler sector. Individual stocks focus on Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) and Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) .
2) yellow chicken industry: maintain the “optimistic” rating and recommend Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) . In March, the price of Lihua yellow chicken was 12.81 yuan / kg, down 1.35 yuan / kg per month; Wen’s yellow chicken costs 13.44 yuan / kg, down 1.19 yuan / kg per month. At the end of March, the production and stock of parent breeders in China decreased by 0.8% and 4.7% respectively, 1.1% lower than the annual average level. Chicken prices are currently above the cost line. With the advent of consumption peak seasons such as the Dragon Boat Festival, they may return to the rising channel. In the medium and long term, environmental protection constraints and the transformation of live birds to fresh ice will raise the industry threshold, promote the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity and optimize the competition pattern. Maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry, mainly recommend Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , and pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
3) dynamic insurance: give a good rating, with emphasis on Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) . On the eve of the reversal of the pig cycle, the vaccine boom was under short-term pressure. In the medium and long term, the improvement of large-scale breeding level, the upgrading of vaccine technology and the listing of new products will drive the expansion of the animal protection market. At the same time, the new GMP certificate certification, feed prohibition and breeding restriction, as well as the improvement of the biological security level of the breeding industry will promote the reform of the animal protection industry and optimize the competition pattern. The valuation of the animal insurance company is at the bottom of history, and the investment safety margin is high, so it is given a good rating. Stocks with reasonable valuation and R & D advantages are recommended Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) .
2. Planting industry chain
1) planting: maintain the “optimistic” rating, and highlight Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . International geopolitical conflicts affect global food security, and China’s planting industry is of great importance. Grain prices outside China have been adjusted at a high level recently, and there is little possibility of a sharp correction during the year. The rating of “optimistic” is maintained, and Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) .
2) seed industry: maintain a long-term “optimistic” rating, focusing on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) . It is a general trend for corn and soybean transgenic seeds to go on the market. Once implemented, the seed industry market space is expected to expand and the competition pattern will be reshaped. The head enterprises with early layout R & D are expected to gain more market share by virtue of the first mover advantage. Maintain the “optimistic” rating and focus on the investment opportunities of corn seed industry. In terms of individual stocks, focus on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) .
II. Market Review
The agricultural index is weaker than the market, mainly affected by the decline in aquaculture. 1. Last week, the Shenwan agricultural index fell 7.07%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.29%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.27%, and the performance of the agricultural index was significantly weaker than that of the big market; 2. Specific to the fine molecule industry, all fell, with fishery, animal protection and aquaculture ranking the top 3; 3. The top 10 gainers are mainly concentrated in Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing sector, and the top 10 losers are concentrated in aquaculture sector. The top three stocks that rose were Tianshan biology, Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) and Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) .
III. industry data
Pigs: in the 17th week, the average ex factory price of pigs in Jiangxi Province was 15.09 yuan / kg, up 0.51 yuan / kg from last week; The average loss of self breeding heads in the main pig producing areas in China was 279 yuan, 97 yuan less than that of last week. By the end of March 2022, the number of fertile sows in China was 41.85 million, with a monthly decrease of 0.98%; Broiler: in the 17th week, the average price of chicken seedlings in Yantai, Shandong Province was 2.92 yuan / feather, down 0.46 yuan per week;
The average price of white feather meat and wool chicken in front of the shed was 4.62 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis; In the 16th week, the single feather profit of broiler breeding was 3.34 yuan, 0.39 yuan more than that of the previous week;
Feed: in the 17th week, the average price of broiler feed was 3.98 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of fattening pig feed was 3.81 yuan / kg, down 0.01 yuan / kg per week;
Aquatic products: in the 17th week, the price of sea cucumber / scallop / prawn / Abalone in Shandong Weihai wholesale market was 180 / 10 / 310 / 100 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis;
Grain and others: in the 17th week, Nanning white sugar spot was 5850 yuan / ton, down 46 yuan per week; China’s 328 grade cotton was 22432 yuan / ton, down 149 yuan per week; China’s corn purchase was 2784 yuan / ton, up 17 yuan per week; Chinese soybean meal spot 4395 yuan / ton, down 129 yuan a week; In the 17th week, China’s wheat spot was 3264 yuan / ton, down 41 yuan per week; The average price of Japonica Rice in China was 2776 yuan / ton, up 8 yuan per week;
IV. risk warning
The price changes of raw materials such as sudden epidemic diseases, livestock and poultry, aquatic products and corn are less than expected
