Photovoltaic process iteration and equipment demand improvement
Driven by the “double carbon” and peaceful price online, the photovoltaic boom remained high. In 2021, China’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached a record high of 55gw, ranking first in the world for nine consecutive years. The photovoltaic industry association predicts that from 2022 to 2025, the average annual new installed capacity of global photovoltaic will reach 232286gw; China’s “14th five year plan” has an average annual installed capacity of 70-90gw. With the increase of the marginal cost of perc technical efficiency, the cost performance advantages of TOPCON / IBC and other processes gradually appear, which is expected to enter the stage of large-scale industrialization. In the long run, technological iteration and large-scale mass production speed up the balance between efficiency and cost. It is suggested to focus on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) etc. In addition, with the maturity of laser technology and the decline of application cost, there are more and more process scenarios for photovoltaic production processes to improve efficiency and reduce cost through laser. It is suggested to focus on Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) .
The semiconductor boom remains unchanged, and the performance of equipment enterprises is flexible
TSMC achieved a revenue of $17.6 billion in Q1 in 2022, which was higher than the upper limit of previous performance guidelines, with a year-on-year increase of 36% and a month on month increase of 11.6%; The gross profit margin was 55.6%, an increase of 2.9pct month on month, indicating that the current industry boom is continuing to rise; TSMC expects capital expenditure to be about US $40-44 billion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 33.3% – 46.7%, reflecting optimistic expectations for downstream demand. Electric and intelligent vehicles need considerable sensors, while automotive electronic technologies such as intelligent cockpit, intelligent driving and v2x will significantly stimulate the demand for semiconductors. Frost & Sullivan predicts that the scale of China’s integrated circuit market will reach 1.4 trillion in 2024. Semi predicts that the potential expansion capacity of 8 / 12 inch wafer factories in mainland China will be about 42 / 1.2 million pieces / month respectively. The expansion process of wafer factories continues to advance, corresponding to the continuous strong demand for semiconductor equipment in China. The US sanctions and squeeze events further highlight the importance of self-control. The verification of new domestic machines is expected to be actively promoted to drive the performance of domestic equipment enterprises. In 2022, the revenue of Q1 semiconductor equipment sector was + 46.1% year-on-year, the net profit deducted from non parent company was + 129.4% year-on-year, and the performance and profitability of equipment enterprises were improved as a whole. It is suggested to focus on Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , shengmei Shanghai, etc.
Industry rating and opinion update this week
China’s manufacturing industry is in a period of continuous transformation and upgrading, which will bring broad market space to the high-end equipment industry and maintain the industry’s “overweight” rating. It is recommended to focus on industrial automation, self controlled semiconductor equipment, carbon neutralization, accelerating new energy industry and benefiting photovoltaic equipment and lithium battery equipment, urban rail equipment benefiting from new infrastructure, and oil service industry gradually recovering under the promotion of energy security.
This week’s core recommendations
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) : the leading position of the company in the etching field of semiconductor equipment and the gradual expansion of the company’s MOCVD equipment in the field of miniled. The company is committed to building a platform company and will gradually grow into an influential semiconductor equipment company in the world.
Guangzhou Grg Metrology&Test Co.Ltd(002967) : the third-party detection track has excellent characteristics of strong growth and weak cycle, and the policy guidance is good for the leading enterprises; The performance of traditional business is relatively excellent, and cultivating business is waiting for the optimization of customer structure; The business structure and customer strategy are optimized and adjusted, the production capacity is gradually released, and the profitability is expected to be repaired.
Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) : XBC increases the value of single GW laser equipment, and the order is expected to continue to land; TOPCON primary laser se technology is expected to achieve better efficiency and lower cost; Both hjt and thin film battery have technical layout, and the layout of laser technology runs through the short, medium and long term.
Risk tips
The macroeconomic boom is lower than expected; China’s fixed asset investment is less than expected; The implementation of policies in key industries is less than expected; There is uncertainty in the company’s promotion of relevant matters.
