Report guide
The market has been overly pessimistic, technology stocks have broken through the historical valuation level, and the bottom of the stock price has been seen. Don't be pessimistic. When you have bought on the left, wait for the reversal. The policy has been strengthened, and Internet companies will significantly outperform the market in the second half of the year. "The inflection point of the Internet has emerged. Hard technology first looks at the reversal of mobile phones, and then looks at the new high growth" is our investment strategy
Key investment points
The bottom is now, the market is overly pessimistic about the technology industry, and the time to buy on the left has come, waiting for the reversal in the second half of the year
The falling factors of technology stocks in April can be summarized as follows: 1. The epidemic is too pessimistic about the demand of mobile phone market; 2. Worry about the relocation of the supply chain; 3. Lack of confidence of private entrepreneurs; We believe that the reflection of these factors is too pessimistic.
Mobile phones are just needed, and the overseas market has not been affected by the epidemic. The mobile phone market will be low in the first half of the year and high in the second half of the year. Chinese Mainland already has a full industry and ecological supply chain, so the transfer time cost is high and it is difficult in the short term; The central meeting on April 29 boosted the confidence of enterprises, especially Internet enterprises, which helped the share price of technology stocks rise.
In recent years, many companies with system innovation have emerged in Chinese Mainland, which can fully lead the development of China's science and technology industry. At present, the valuations of these companies have broken through the lowest in history. When it comes to buying on the left, they are expected to obtain excess returns in the medium and long term.
The Internet policy has shifted, and it is believed that Internet companies will significantly outperform the market in the second half of the year; Hard technology first looks at the reversal of mobile phones, and then at the new high growth; The digital economy chooses the industrial Internet with the most significant marketization. We will continue to pay attention to the localization of semiconductors.
Valuation expansion is a significant feature of the large market of science and technology stocks. Looking for valuation evolution trend and system innovation is fundamental. Disruptive innovation is an important factor leading to valuation expansion of science and technology stocks. Perceiving valuation evolution trend is perceiving the strength of scientific and technological innovation. We suggest to perceive the strength of scientific and technological innovation around the four dimensions of capital, technology / service, enterprise and conceptual products, so as to judge the investment cycle of science and technology stocks.
System innovation, the company's business continuity is determined, and the stock price space is large, which is the best choice for investment.
The world has entered a new scientific and technological innovation cycle represented by intelligence, focusing on intelligent driving / intelligence, digital economy / industrial Internet, new Internet, metauniverse and semiconductor localization;
1) the biggest change of intelligent driving / intellectualization is the development of domain control and central computing, which not only subverts the car, but also gives the electronic industry chain the opportunity to enter the automobile industry chain. Intellectualization also brings more demand for software and chips;
2) the most market-oriented link of digital economy is industrial Internet, which serves factory intelligence, business intelligence, etc; Companies with international competitiveness have also emerged in this field, such as Haikang, Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) , etc;
3) the online shopping community is in the stage of accelerating the growth of new-type and local users' habits; The epidemic is expected to accelerate the formation of consumption habits and benefit the industry.
4) in China, metauniverse still needs to wait for the introduction of technology and services on the Internet platform, and investment depends on overseas demand.
Around the system innovation standard, it is suggested to pay attention to intelligent driving: Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Shunyu optics (Optics) Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) (power semiconductor) Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) (bus), Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) (domain control) Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (power components); Internet: meituan, Tencent holdings, JD group; Yuancosmos: Goertek Inc(002241) (VR); Industrial Internet: Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) (Financial IT); Semiconductor: Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , etc;
Risk tips
Epidemic risk, policy implementation is less than expected, localization process is less than expected, etc
