Key investment points:
The current valuation of the electronics industry is at the bottom of history. At present, the overall valuation of the electronics industry is similar to that at the end of 2018, which is at the bottom range in the past seven years. Taking the data on April 29, 2022 as an example, the PE valuation (TTM) of CITIC electronics industry index is 30.6, which is close to the valuation at the bottom of 2018. Judging from the market's static PE or PS of electronic leading companies this year at the current time point, the leading companies are generally lower than the consensus expected valuation at the same time point in the past years. At present, the market's static PE for consumer electronics leaders Lixun and Goethe this year is about 20 times, which is close to the valuation level in 2018. For Zhaoyi and Weier, the current static PE has been 23 ~ 28 times, which is significantly lower than the valuation in the past five years. From the perspective of PS, the equipment leaders Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) are expected to be 8.9 and 14.3 times respectively this year, which is significantly lower than the predicted value in the same period of the past two years. From the perspective of history, the company has a significant comparison with the current leading market.
The electronics industry as a whole retreated by a large margin and has the potential of oversold rebound. The pullback rate of the electronics sector since this year has reached 35%, second only to the pullback rate in 2018. From the perspective of historical law, the maximum pullback range of the electronic sector is generally 30% ~ 40%, reflecting that this round of pullback may be coming to an end. On the other hand, the electronics sector generally has a good upward performance after a sharp retreat. Our statistics show that in the three months after the main pullback period in history, the electronic sector rose by 22% ~ 48%, reflecting that the electronic sector has a high probability of rebound after a sharp decline.
22q1 position analysis of electronic industry: semiconductors are still concerned. 22q1, the market value of Companies in the electronics industry accounted for 10.9% of the heavy holdings of funds (select the whole market stock type and hybrid open-end funds), down 2.5 percentage points month on month. Based on the ranking of the total market value of a fund that is held by a fund that is heavily held by a fund that is heavily held from the total market value of a fund that is heavily held by a fund that is heavily held from the top of the market. The top ten are ranked by the ranking of the ranking of the total market value of the total market value of the total market that is held by a fund that is heavily held by a fund that is heavily held by a fund that is heavily held by the total market value. The top ten of the top ten ranked by the ranking of the ranking of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the top ten are the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Nanjing Port Co.Ltd(002040) 49, Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Nanjing Port Co.Ltd(002040) 4049 \ , Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , reflecting that semiconductor companies are still concerned.
The overall performance of 22q1 quarterly report is excellent. In the long run, the fundamentals of the electronics industry continue to rise. From the 22q1 quarterly report, the overall performance of electronic companies is excellent. For example, equipment companies continued to maintain rapid growth, and the revenue of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) and Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) Q1 increased by more than 50% year-on-year; The revenue of the leading power semiconductor companies still increased month on month ( Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) q1 revenue + 23%, Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) revenue + 5%, Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) revenue + 6%); In the field of IC design, Q1 revenue of analog design company increased significantly, while FPGA and aiot chip companies also performed well. Looking forward to this year, the global semiconductor equipment has not improved since the tight delivery period last year, and the domestic equipment will accelerate the domestic substitution. The demand for new energy has been improving for a long time, and the product and customer structure of the power company will be upgraded and optimized this year. Although the early boom of consumer electronics was poor, the median performance forecast of Goertek Inc(002241) in the first half of the year was + 30% year-on-year, which is expected to dispel the pessimistic expectation of the market on consumer electronics. In the long run, the fundamentals of the electronics industry continue to rise.
Investment suggestions: it is recommended to focus on equipment platform companies Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , subdivide leading companies Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) and equipment parts: Konfoong Materials International Co.Ltd(300666) and so on; Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) , etc. in power semiconductors; Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(688385) , Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , etc. in semiconductor design; National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) , etc. in semiconductor materials; Goertek Inc(002241) , Juguang technology, Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Electric Connector Technology Co.Ltd(300679) , Olympic Circuit Technology Co.Ltd(603920) , etc. in consumer electronics and automotive electronics.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected, new product R & D progress is less than expected, supply chain recovery is less than expected, and market competition intensifies the risk.
