Key investment points:
Infrastructure construction took the lead in boosting the demand for construction machinery. The cumulative number of capital construction projects and machinery projects planned by the government has gradually increased year-on-year, which is expected to reflect the gradual increase in the number of capital construction projects and construction projects, and the cumulative increase in the number of capital construction projects and machinery projects is expected to gradually increase year-on-year.
Policy easing is expected to continue to improve, and the industry is expected to usher in marginal improvement. Real estate development investment, sales area and other data are still at the bottom. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the expectation of loose real estate policy is increasing. Since the beginning of the year, 70 cities across the country have issued real estate regulation policies. From the policy side, it mainly includes reducing the down payment ratio, reducing the mortgage interest rate, providing house purchase subsidies, loosening the purchase and sale restrictions, etc. With the relaxation of policies, real estate investment is expected to usher in opportunities and stimulate the demand for construction machinery.
Export hedging is affected by cyclical fluctuations, and downstream expansion drives new sales. Affected by cyclical fluctuations, the year-on-year growth rate of construction machinery sales has continued to slow down since April 2021. The high growth of export sales effectively cushions the downside risk of cyclical fluctuations to domestic sales. Benefiting from the upcoming implementation of the four national standards for non road machinery, the stock of construction machinery will be updated and replaced in succession, providing stable sales support for construction machinery. With the national rural construction planning, the rural demand for construction machinery with high flexibility such as small excavators has increased, which has become a new increment in the sales of construction machinery. The electric, automatic, intelligent and digital transformation of construction machinery will be the future trend. It will also become the incremental driving force of construction machinery and one of the driving factors of enterprise performance growth.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, with the premise of setting a steady growth and moderately ahead of infrastructure investment and projects, driven by favorable factors such as accelerated issuance of special bonds, the prosperity of the infrastructure industry has gradually rebounded. At present, the data related to real estate is still at the bottom. With the marginal easing of real estate policy, the boom is gradually picking up. Driven by both infrastructure and real estate, it is expected to stimulate the demand for construction machinery. It is suggested to pay attention to: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ( Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ( Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ), Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ( Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ), Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co.Ltd(000528) ( Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co.Ltd(000528) ), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ( Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ).
Risk tips: (1) if the infrastructure / real estate / manufacturing investment is less than expected, the demand for machinery and equipment will weaken; (2) If the issuance progress of special bonds slows down or the issuance amount is lower than expected, the number of downstream projects will decrease and the demand for construction machinery will weaken; (3) If the overseas market reduces the demand for Chinese enterprises' products, it will put pressure on the performance of Chinese enterprises; (4) The price of raw materials has risen sharply, and the performance of enterprises in the industry will face great pressure.
