Market review: this week, the Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological sector index fell by 1.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.2%, and the pharmaceutical sector ranked 11th in the Shenwan industry classification; Since the beginning of the year, the Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological sector index has decreased by 23.3%, 4.5% lower than the CSI 300 index, ranking 22nd in the Shenwan industry classification. The top five stocks were Shanghai Yizhong Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688091) (+ 42.6%), Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited(000756) (+ 41.4%), Hainan Shuangcheng Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002693) (+ 39.1%), China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600062) (+ 33.2%), Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) (+ 30.7%).
Shanghai epidemic tracking summary: by distinguishing the new cases in Shanghai, we can find that the new confirmed and asymptomatic cases of infection found in the recent screening of risk groups are decreasing, that is, most of the cases come from isolated control areas, and the epidemic situation is controllable on the whole. In addition, as the shelter hospital was gradually put into use and a large number of patients began to be accepted some time ago, we judged that the number of discharged patients per day would remain at a relatively high level, the number of existing patients in Shanghai would continue to decrease, and there was a dawn of the epidemic in Shanghai.
The proportion of pharmaceutical positions of public funds has increased and is still low. In 2022q1, the medical positions of public funds accounted for 11.6%, up 0.8pct month on month. In the same period, the total market value of medicine accounted for 8.6% of a shares, which was the same as that of 21q4; The proportion of pharmaceutical theme fund positions in the pharmaceutical positions of public funds decreased, accounting for 32.2% in 2022q1, down 2.7pct month on month, that is, the proportion of pharmaceutical sector positions of non pharmaceutical theme funds increased.
Investment strategy and allocation ideas: this week, the Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological sector index fell by 1.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.2%, and the pharmaceutical sector ranked 11th in the Shenwan industry classification. We believe that the current pharmaceutical configuration has high cost performance. Policy: on April 29, the Politburo meeting released a positive message, emphasizing that “the epidemic should be prevented, the economy should be stable, and development should be safe”. We must pay attention to both epidemic resistance and economic development, which promoted the recovery of market confidence and the sharp rise of the market before the Festival. In terms of epidemic prevention and control: at present, the vast majority of cases in Shanghai come from isolated control areas, and the number of new cases in Shanghai has been reduced to less than 500, that is, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has dawned, and the second batch of work and production resumption has been promoted. With the warmer weather, we judge that China’s current round of epidemic prevention and control is about to usher in the end stage, and China’s economic and consumption recovery is imminent. With the disclosure of pharmaceutical stocks, the valuation of CXO and IVD are still in the bottom range, and the overall performance of IVD is still good compared with the historical valuation range of Q1 and IVD. The key directions we suggest are as follows: 1. Epidemic prevention and control line: covid-19 oral drugs are urgently needed. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1. Pfizer covid-19 small molecule industry chain: 1) MPP authorized enterprises: Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) and Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) etc; 2) Cdmo: Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , etc; 3) Intermediates: Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) etc; 2. Domestic covid-19 oral small molecule, key points: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) R & D vv116 has started the global multi center phase III and China Pfizer drug head-to-head test, and has been enrolled; 2、 Under the expectation of resumption of production, consumer medical care deserves attention: after the current round of epidemic situation is unsealed, the demand for medical consumption will recover rapidly, focusing on Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , he’s Ophthalmology, etc. 3、 Continue to be optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine sector: the short-term correction of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is significant, and there is no change in fundamentals and policies. Some sectors and companies have strong performance certainty, focusing on: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Chinese traditional medicine, Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) and Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) . 4、 Adhere to performance as the king and pay attention to companies with low value and high growth, such as Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Baicheng pharmaceutical, Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300705) and Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) etc.
This week’s portfolio: Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , he’s Ophthalmology, Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Baicheng medicine, Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) and Eyebright Medical Technology(Beijing) Co.Ltd(688050) .
May portfolio: Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Eyebright Medical Technology(Beijing) Co.Ltd(688050) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) and Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) .
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected; The performance of the listed company is less than expected; Market competition intensifies risks.
