Medical equipment: under the 20-year high base, the income growth slowed down in 21 years. In the future, benefiting from (1) the new global medical infrastructure policy, (2) the capacity expansion of the biopharmaceutical industry chain, (3) the acceleration of domestic substitution in some subdivided fields, companies in related fields can still maintain medium and high-speed growth.
In vitro diagnosis: the revenue side increased rapidly in 21 years, especially covid-19 antigen detection. In 2021 covid-19 detection, the revenue increased by about 43% year-on-year, and 22q1 continued to grow high, with a year-on-year increase of about 219%. In the field of routine testing, it has recovered slightly in 21 years, but the recovery range is weak. The recovery trend of 22q1 continues. In the future, we are optimistic about (1) the continuous recovery of conventional IVD business, especially the IVD target with high proportion in overseas market; (2) Pay attention to covid-19 testing and epidemic prevention policy and possible dark horse opportunities in the testing field.
High value consumables: the recovery of high growth in 21 years, the growth trend of 22q1 is slowed down by the epidemic prevention and control policy, and there are a wide range of high-value consumables products. Among them, innovative equipment companies represented by H shares are more flexible in the recovery of growth, but they are subject to more R & D expenses and sales expenses, and the profit side is still dominated by large losses. The company is optimistic about the high profitability and strong resilience of medical consumables. Secondly, it is suggested to pay attention to the objects with large variety driving logic, such as Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , Apt Medical Inc(688617) , Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , and it is suggested to pay attention to some objects that benefit from the centralized purchase policy, such as Shandong Weigao Orthopaedic Device Co.Ltd(688161) , Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , and avoid the objects that may enter the centralized purchase cycle.
Low value consumables: the overall income growth rate in 21 years is low, mainly due to the impact of the high base in 20 years. From the perspective of sector differentiation, the growth rate of fast-growing categories (such as masks and gloves) decreased in 2020, and the demand for consumables for injection puncture and virus sampling surged. In the future, we will focus on consumables with order continuity, continuous introduction of new customers, capacity expansion or category expansion drive.
Device Internationalization: covid-19 epidemic has promoted the process of device internationalization, mainly in the following forms: (1) bind major customers, make use of China’s production capacity and supply chain advantages, and focus on ODM going to sea (such as some low-value consumables); (2) Some covid-19 testing reagent companies go to sea with their own brands; (3) High value-added device products have been approved by FDA or have broken through high-level customers, such as Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Sonoscape Medical Corp(300633) , etc. Continue to be optimistic about the internationalization prospect of Chinese equipment companies.
Medical services: under the influence of the epidemic, the differentiation effect of the medical service sector is obvious, and the leader is always strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment value of the leading enterprises in the subdivision track; From the perspective of the overall sector, the profit side has decreased slightly in the short term, but the prosperity of the industry is still high. Under the situation of the improvement of the epidemic in Shanghai, the medical service field with strong consumption attribute has explosive growth.
ICL: the outbreak of multiple epidemics is superimposed on the determination of the country for epidemic prevention, and the demand for covid-19 detection is growing on a large scale. The covid-19 detection business superimposed on the exploration of routine detection & special detection business will bring continuous increment to the ICL field. The detection leader represented by Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) may continue to achieve high performance. Traditional Chinese medicine: the industry resumes growth, and the cost reduction under the 22q1 epidemic will bring cost control. The industry logic is clear, and the industry changes driven by policies, focusing on innovative traditional Chinese medicine, brand traditional Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine services and traditional Chinese medicine formula particles.
Pharmacies: multiple factors led to performance pressure in 2021, and the sustainability of the impact of the epidemic still needs to be paid attention to in 2022. The long-term logic of Chinese pharmacies has not decreased, and the chain rate has increased + prescription outflow. The two long-term logic has not changed.
Circulation: the growth has recovered, and the profit of the profit side has declined. In the long term, the epidemic situation and concentration after centralized mining have accelerated, and the retail end has become a new growth point in the industrial logic. In the short term, the introduction and distribution of covid-19 have attracted attention, and the leading effect will be more obvious.
Upstream of scientific research: the upstream of scientific research can be divided into reagents, equipment and consumables. From the perspective of representative enterprises, the one-time impact of covid-19 benefit in 2020 led to the decline of apparent growth in 2021, but the volume and scale brought considerable development. The growth of scientific research funds determines the high outlook of the industry, and the merger and expansion is the only way for the growth of leaders.
CXO’s high outlook will continue: we believe that at present, the research and development of new drugs in the world and China will continue to be active. Due to the gradual transfer of the global industrial chain to China and the rapid growth of Chinese demand, it is expected that the high outlook of CXO industry will continue.
Focus on cost-effective and emerging track investment opportunities:
– (1) CXO head enterprises continue to undertake global orders, explore overseas markets, maintain a rapid growth trend in revenue, and the market valuation gradually enters a reasonable range. We suggest paying attention to Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) ;
– (2) high growth companies with comparative advantages and their own characteristics will gradually and deeply integrate into the R & D system, usher in a period of valuable opportunities for their own development, and will not be disturbed by the investment and financing market in the primary market to a certain extent. It is expected that the business performance will continue to show a trend of rapid growth in the future and have investment value. Baicheng medicine, Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) etc. are recommended;
– (3) with the continuous deepening of drug research and development, the upstream model animal track has developed rapidly, and continues to upgrade and innovate animal models and services, feed back new drug research and development, and improve the success rate and efficiency of research and development. Therefore, the industry has strong development potential. It is expected that with the improvement of China’s outsourcing penetration of experimental animals and the development of overseas markets, the performance is expected to achieve rapid growth. Nanmo biology is recommended and Yaokang biology is recommended.
Vaccine: the promotion and sales of large single products is the key factor driving the rebound of 2022 performance. In 2021, the performance of vaccine companies differentiated. The performance of Zhifei, Kangtai, Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) and other companies involved in covid-19 vaccine production and sales increased significantly, while the performance of other vaccine companies declined due to the impact of the epidemic. At present, the vaccine industry is experiencing the first year of style change. Since 2021, companies have focused on R & D, production and sales of non immunization vaccine. With the construction of sales team and market access promotion, the penetration rate of large single products has been increasing. The performance of enterprises is expected to gradually recover with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of the company’s approval and issuance and the research and development progress of new products.? Blood products: the industry maintains a steady-state balance and waits for the haze of the epidemic to dissipate. Affected by the epidemic in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the difficulty of commodity distribution increased and the consumption of patients for medical treatment and hospital terminal surgery decreased. Except Shanghai Raas Blood Products Co.Ltd(002252) and Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) and , the sales growth rate of other blood products companies decreased or even temporarily decreased. In the long run, the supply and demand of blood products in China have increased slightly at the same time, and the overall balance has been maintained. The demand for Jing C, factor, special exemption and other products is insufficient, and the competition may intensify. The subsequent growth points may appear in the increase of plasma collection of leading companies and the research and development of new products of coagulation factors and fibrinogen. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of slurry collection and the research and development progress of each company.
Other biological products: growth hormone + insulin + innovative biological drugs. Driven by the growth of sales of growth hormone, new generation insulin products and innovative biological drugs, the performance of other biological products industries has increased steadily. Growth hormone related enterprises benefited from the gradual elimination of the impact of the epidemic in 2021 and the vigorous promotion of the company. The newly infected groups recovered well and their performance maintained rapid growth. In the future, it is suggested to pay attention to the R & D and market promotion progress of long-acting dosage form of growth hormone, the centralized purchase in other provinces and the R & D of new products.
Innovative western medicine: on the whole, the valuation of innovative western medicine decreased significantly in 2021. In 2022, Q1 was affected by the epidemic, and its performance fluctuated, and the newly listed products and newly incorporated medical insurance products need time to adapt to the market. It is expected that the volume will gradually increase after Q2 in 2022, and q3-q4 will have a relatively significant performance in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to: (1) white horse stocks that may have short-term bad conditions and performance inflection points; (2) covid-19 logic related subjects, etc.
Innovative traditional Chinese medicine: the state has made great efforts to support innovative traditional Chinese medicine, and there are still many detailed rules conducive to innovative traditional Chinese medicine that can be implemented. Subsequently, with the implementation of the basic drug 986 policy, the exclusive varieties and basic drug varieties of most innovative traditional Chinese medicine enterprises can usher in a new round of large-scale production and feed back the scientific research of traditional Chinese medicine. The adjustment of the basic drug catalogue in 2022 will also promote the listing of traditional Chinese medicine and the large volume of related products. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets with favorable policies, long endurance and good R & D background.
