Key investment points:
Zhou’s view: in the first quarter, under the expectation of steady growth, the fund increased its holdings in the building materials sector, especially the infrastructure side, and the cement sector that directly benefited was increased in varying degrees. Secondly, the real estate policy continued to be relaxed. The central government’s support for “Implementing policies for cities” and the substantive relaxation of local governments complement each other, and the real estate recovered from policy expectation to substantive demand, Therefore, some leading consumers of building materials ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) etc.) are also favored by funds; The recent Politburo meeting proposed to support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions and support the demand for rigid and improved housing. According to Kerui data, the sales scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 58.6% year-on-year and 16.2% month on month in April. Under the background of increasing downward pressure on the current economy, real estate policies have been relaxed and expectations have increased. Since this year, more than 80 regions have issued real estate related regulation policies, The policy relaxation is expected to catalyze the substantial improvement of demand, the real estate fundamentals are expected to quickly reach the bottom and stabilize, and pay attention to the real estate chain β For the opportunities brought by improvement, the first choice is Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ; Secondly, the edge of the “foundation” chain is upward, and the demand suppressed by the epidemic is expected to be released in a centralized manner. The cement leaders with undervalued value and high dividend are expected to usher in the valuation and repair market with the recovery of fundamentals. Pay attention to Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Consumption of building materials: the policy continues to catalyze, and the inflection point of the real estate chain is gradually approaching. The recent Politburo meeting proposed to support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. In the context of the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the expectation of real estate policy relaxation at the Politburo meeting has increased, which is complementary to the substantive relaxation of real estate regulation in more than 80 regions since this year, and the real estate fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom and stabilize rapidly; With the disclosure of the epidemic situation, the pressure on the concentration of raw material prices in the second half of the year is expected to be eased, but the pressure on the transmission of raw material prices is expected to be gradually relieved by the steady upward trend of raw material prices in the second half of the year. Waterproof materials that run through the construction cycle and are catalyzed by industry standards are preferred (pay attention to Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ); The second is the pipe faucet ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ), the ceramic tile faucet ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ), and the gypsum board ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ) benefiting from the completion cycle.
Cement: the epidemic situation is the biggest variable affecting cement demand, waiting for the centralized release of demand after the epidemic situation is alleviated. Since March, the repeated epidemic in many places has led to the limited construction of “foundation” projects in various places, and the demand recovery is less than expected. At present, the average shipment rate of enterprises has decreased by about 20% year-on-year, and even 30% in areas with serious epidemic. We believe that the epidemic is the biggest variable affecting the demand for cement at present. In May or with the marginal improvement of the epidemic, there will be a centralized release of demand. At the end of April, the central bank cut the reserve requirement by 0.25 percentage points again to support the recovery of the real economy. In the first quarter, local special bonds were issued 1.33 trillion, an increase of 1.09 trillion over the same period. The pre issuance of local special bonds helped stabilize growth. The state actively promoted the investment in 102 major infrastructure projects, Achieve a faster matching between funds and projects. At the same time, the real estate will be substantially relaxed in many places due to urban policies, and the real estate demand is expected to hit the bottom and rebound; The real estate and infrastructure chain is still an important part of stabilizing the economy. The epidemic has delayed but will not be absent. The subsequent suppressed demand is expected to be released intensively. The cement price may usher in a new round of upward movement, and the cement sector with undervalued value and high dividend will still benefit the most. It is suggested to pay attention to the faucet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and the elastic subject Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Glass: the demand recovers slowly and the price is weak. At present, the epidemic situation is repeated in many places, the logistics control is becoming stricter, and the demand recovery is less than expected. Since March, the inventory of enterprises has continued to rise, and the price is weak. We believe that the biggest variable of current demand is the epidemic situation. With the continuous relaxation of local governments’ real estate policies, the effect of urban implementation of real estate policies may gradually appear. The orders postponed since the second half of last year may usher in a centralized release, which is optimistic about a new round of simultaneous rise in volume and price of glass after the improvement of the epidemic situation. From a macro perspective, the demand for real estate completion remains resilient, with a real estate sales area of more than 1.7 billion square meters in 18-21 years. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, new construction accelerates the transmission of support demand to completion; At the same time, the industrial chain extension of leading enterprises is gradually emerging, the proportion of growth businesses is gradually increasing, and the periodic fluctuation is gradually smoothed (it is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass).
Glass fiber: the performance of the first quarterly report of the leading company exceeded expectations, and the roving continued to have a high bearing. Judging from the quarterly reports of China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) and Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , the performance exceeded expectations, and the roving continued to have a high momentum. According to the customs statistics, the export of China’s glass fiber roving in Q1 was about 226000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 67.4%. There was strong foreign demand, and the industrial inventory remained low; The mainstream transaction price of electronic yarn is 85009000 yuan / ton, which is basically stable month on month; The price of electronic cloth will be maintained at 3.2-3.5 yuan / meter after the mainstream quotation is lowered. We believe that roving demand remains strong, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles supports the strong demand for thermoplastic yarn in 2022; The installed capacity of wind power will gradually pick up in 2022, and the installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan may exceed the expectation again, so as to stimulate the demand of upstream and downstream industrial chains and the demand for high-end products of the industry; According to the tracked industrial production expansion plan, the new supply in 2022 is limited, the supply and demand of the industry remain matched, and the high outlook of the industry may continue or exceed expectations; The price of electronic yarn drops rapidly or further squeezes the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises to curb the disorderly expansion of enterprises. The cost advantage of leading enterprises is obvious, and the capacity expansion realizes the advantage of supplementing the price with quantity. (it is suggested to pay attention to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ).
Risk warning: the investment in fixed assets is lower than expected; The aggravation of trade conflict leads to the obstruction of sales volume of export enterprises; The margin of environmental protection supervision is relaxed, and the supply contraction is lower than expected; The sharp rise in raw material prices has brought cost pressure.
