Covid-19 tracking
The research and development of covid-19 drugs and vaccines at home and abroad has made continuous progress: (1) covid-19 oral drugs: yanyeyi published the phase 2B clinical data of covid-19 oral drugs, which reached the virological endpoint, but failed to significantly improve the 12 symptom scores Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) vv116’s international multicenter phase 2 / 3 clinic was carried out in Hong Kong; The phase 2 / 3 clinical use of paxlovid for post exposure prevention did not reach the primary clinical endpoint. (2) Covid-19 small molecule injection: FDA approved redcivir for children Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) 3cl injection fb2001 was approved to carry out phase II / III international multi center registration clinical treatment for patients with moderate and severe covid-19. (3) Covid-19 vaccine: Omicron inactivated vaccine of Sinopharm Zhongsheng and Kexing obtained clinical approval respectively, Sinocelltech Group Limited(688520) covid-19 vaccine sctv01c and sctv01e obtained phase III clinical approval of UAE.
In the first quarter of 2022, Pfizer paxlovid had sales of US $1.47 billion, maintaining the annual production plan of 120 million copies and the annual sales forecast of US $22 billion. Moshadong molnupiravir had sales of $3.247 billion in the first quarter.
The number of new cases in Shanghai decreased rapidly. In China, the vaccination rate of two doses of vaccine has reached 88%, and the vaccination rate of booster doses has reached 50%. Hong Kong epidemic data show that the mortality rate of vaccinated patients is lower. The global epidemic continues to ease, but the mortality rate of confirmed patients in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Hong Kong is high. OmicronBA. 2 it accounts for more than 80% in the world, and Omicron new subspecies accounts for less than 5%.
Zhou viewpoint update
The valuation and fund allocation of the pharmaceutical sector are at a historical low, the growth is determined, and has begun to have great allocation value.
There are still challenges for innovative drugs to go to sea. We are optimistic about differentiated innovation and head innovative pharmaceutical enterprises with international ability. Hehuang pharmaceutical received a complete reply from FDA. The application for the listing of sufantinib in the United States was not approved, and the international multicenter clinical trial needs to be supplemented Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) after receiving the full reply from FDA, treprizumab needs to complete a quality process change and on-site verification. The company plans to resubmit the BLA application of treprizumab before the midsummer of 2022.
Summary of 2021 and 22q1: high demand and boom, continue to be optimistic about the high growth of CXO sector. The CXO sector has strong demand, sustained high growth in revenue and profits, and continuous improvement in the turnover of fixed assets; In terms of orders, from the key companies that disclosed orders, as well as the advance receipts and contract liabilities of the sector, the new orders have maintained a continuous growth momentum at present; In terms of capacity expansion, fixed assets, construction in progress, capital expenditure and personnel growth remained at a high level.
Continue to be optimistic about the upstream API sector of the industrial chain and the upstream pharmaceutical supply chain: ① the dual path growth of API industry upgrading (cdmo) + industry extension. It is expected that the profitability of API sector will continue to be improved in 2022. ② We are optimistic about the investment opportunities of the supply chain during the 14th Five Year Plan period (industrial upgrading + domestic substitution), including equipment and equipment, scientific instruments, upstream reagent consumables for scientific research, upstream consumables for pharmaceutical industry and raw and auxiliary material packaging materials, especially the upstream supply chain for short-term epidemic prevention and control.
Investment suggestions:
It is expected that some positive progress will be made in the R & D of covid-19 small molecules in China in the second and third quarters. It is suggested to focus on small molecule covid-19 drugs and their upstream supply chain, including oral covid-19 drugs and injectable covid-19 drugs for hospitalized patients.
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Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic development and change risk, product R & D data and progress are less than expected risk, product capacity and sales are less than expected risk, government orders are less than expected risk, policy risk, etc.
