\u3000\u3000 Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603439) (603439)
Event:
On January 13, 2022, the company released a performance forecast that it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 950 million yuan in 2021, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 930 million yuan – 960 million yuan, and an operating revenue of 630 million yuan in the same period of last year, an increase of 47.57% – 52.33% over the same period of last year; The estimated net profit is about 145 million yuan to 165 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.33% ~ 75.62%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 125 million yuan to 145 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.55% – 54.92%.
Analysis and comments
The performance meets the expectation: if calculated according to the scope center, it is expected that the annual operating revenue in 2021 will be RMB 950 million, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 155 million, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company will be RMB 135 million. Therefore, in the fourth quarter alone, the operating revenue was 336 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 43 million yuan and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan, which were basically the same as that in 2020 and in line with expectations.
Reasons for performance change:
The main business affects the growth of the company’s performance in 2021 compared with the same period of last year, which is mainly due to the significant impact on the sales of the company’s main products caused by the covid-19 epidemic in the first half of 2020. In 2021, the epidemic situation in China was effectively controlled, the economy recovered, and the market demand for the company’s main products recovered and increased. Meanwhile, sanlizhongyue, a wholly-owned subsidiary, further improved the company’s product sales coverage through its own marketing network. The development and construction of second and third terminal channels began to take effect. The company’s product sales revenue in 2021 increased significantly compared with the same period of last year.
Impact of non operating profit and loss in 2021, the non recurring profit and loss in 2021 is mainly the disposal of the long-term equity investment of Guizhou green sun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., the acquisition of government subsidies, the income of bank financial products, etc., which has a positive impact on the company’s net profit in 2021. From the performance forecast, the annual non recurring profit and loss in 2021 is about 20 million yuan, with a small increase compared with 16.97 million yuan in the third quarter, and the non recurring profit and loss in the fourth quarter has little impact on the profit side. Performance enhanced confidence in the completion of the stock incentive plan: in the restricted stock incentive plan (Draft) issued by the company in 2021, the performance assessment target levels from 2022 to 2024 are 180 million yuan, 215 million yuan and 330 million yuan respectively, with a compound growth rate of about 37%. On the basis of good performance in 2021, we look forward to the company’s continuous performance in the future when the company’s strategy is gradually implemented.
Investment advice
We maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.03/12.6/1.51 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 63.9% / 21.7% / 20.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.5/2.1/280 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 63.6% / 37.2% / 31.7%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.38/0.52/0.68 from 2021 to 2023, with a corresponding valuation of 42x / 30x / 23x. Maintain the “buy” investment rating.
Risk tips
Marketing expansion is less than expected; Large variety dependence risk; The implementation of acquisition strategy is less than expected risk; Product safety accident risk, etc.
