In 2021, it recovered from the disturbance, and the leading exhibition store bucked the trend. Looking back 21 years, the industry recovered from the disturbance. Statement side: the revenue of the hotel sector reached 34.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.1%, returning to 75.9% in 2019. Among them, the income of 2021q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 in 2019 was 66.9%, 85.4%, 72.3% and 78.5% respectively. Business side: in 2021, the blendedrevpar of Huazhu, Jinjiang and the first brigade were 172.0/137.5/119.0 yuan respectively, which recovered to 86.9% / 87.4% / 75.3% in 2019 respectively. Among them, the overall economic repair is ahead of the medium and high-end. The RevPAR of Jinjiang / Huazhu / first travel economy same store was – 23.4% / – 19.8% / – 25.5% year-on-year, and the RevPAR of medium and high-end same store was – 17.0% / – 20.8% / – 28.6% year-on-year. Exhibition stores: the leader actively expanded. In 2021, Jinjiang / Huazhu / first brigade opened 1763 / 1544 / 1418 hotels and closed 556 / 506 / 397 stores respectively, with a net increase of 1207 / 1041 / 1038 hotels respectively.
In 2022, the epidemic situation was disturbed and the leader responded actively. 1) In March 2022q1, the epidemic situation in the first tier cities was disturbed repeatedly, and the leading stores were stable and responded positively. The revenue of Jinjiang / first brigade 2022q1 was + 1.0% / – 4.6% year-on-year respectively; Jinjiang / Huazhu / first travel net increased 144 / 158 / 77 stores respectively, Jinjiang / Huazhu / first travel blendedrevpar recovered to 72.6% / 74.2% / 62.8% in 2019 respectively, and Jinjiang Huazhu exhibition store and first travel in China recovered to take the lead. 2) For the whole year of 2022, Jinjiang aims to open 1500 stores (the same as that in 2021), and 2500 new contracts are signed. It is expected that the exhibition stores will be stable; Huazhu aims to open 1500 stores in the whole year (18002000 in 2021), and attaches importance to quality under lean growth; The first brigade aims to open 18002000 stores in the whole year (14001600 in 2021), and accelerate the expansion of stores under light management. The guiding income in Jinjiang increased by 9-14%, and the guiding income of Huazhu increased by 4-9%. 3) The leaders have made breakthroughs in accordance with the long-term trend of the industry: Jinjiang continues to deepen reform, improve quality and efficiency; Huazhu lean growth, pay attention to quality; The light management of the first brigade continued to make breakthroughs.
The long-term trend of asset light, medium and high-end and force sinking remains unchanged. The growth and pressure resistance of the leading enterprises are prominent. With the recovery of demand in the future, it is expected to enjoy the double dividend of pattern improvement and recovery. 1) On the one hand, from the perspective of the industry as a whole, large-scale outbreaks have occurred in Jilin, Shanghai and other places since 2022; Historically, PMI change can be used as the leading indicator of hotel OCC change. Under the influence of the epidemic in April, the hotel industry is expected to be more disturbed than that in March, and the travel data of Qingming Festival also performed poorly. 2) On the other hand, from the perspective of supply and demand, under the disturbance of the current epidemic, small and medium-sized hotels may continue to clear out or seek chain franchise, while the leader complies with the general trend of long-term asset light, medium and high-end and force sinking market, with prominent growth. Under the subsequent demand recovery, it is expected to enjoy the double dividend of pattern improvement and recovery.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the industry will be repaired in the disturbance of the epidemic situation, and the leading exhibition stores will counter the trend. Their business ability is better than that of their peers. They will comply with the long-term trend of the industry and make breakthroughs in each; We are optimistic about the leading ability of the hotel industry. From the perspective of three years, the epidemic is accelerating, and the small and medium-sized single hotels in the industry are cleared. The long-term leader is expected to benefit from the optimization of the pattern. In the future, with the recovery of demand, it is expected to enjoy the double dividend of pattern improvement and recovery. Key recommendations: Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Huazhu group, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) .
Risk tips: 1) the overall consumer demand is weak or the epidemic breaks out again; 2) Industry competition has intensified significantly; 3) Less than expected expansion:
