Main points:
In 2021, the overall revenue of the automobile industry increased by + 9.9% year-on-year. Despite the adverse factors such as core shortage, epidemic situation and rising prices of raw materials, the profit still improved significantly, and the net profit increased by + 14.0% year-on-year. In terms of sectors, new energy supply and marketing are booming, passenger cars and motorcycles perform well, and commercial vehicles decline significantly due to low demand. Under the influence of the 22q1 epidemic, the passenger car and motorcycle sectors were driven by the leader to achieve contrarian growth, and the performance of parts and components was under pressure, but the profit margin showed a trend of month on month improvement.
Looking forward to 2022, with the gradual easing of the epidemic in China, the terminal demand is expected to continue to pick up. It is expected that the passenger car line is expected to be improved month on month in June, and the performance of parts and components is more resilient to repair; Motorcycle boom continues, leading enterprises are expected to continue to benefit.
Passenger cars: the performance of new energy and export support is rising rapidly
Passenger car sales ended three consecutive declines in 2021, and 22q1 growth continued. Benefiting from the scale effect and structural improvement, the performance of passenger cars accelerated in 2021 and 22q1. In 2021, the revenue / net profit of the passenger car industry was + 14.7% / + 20.2% year-on-year respectively; 22q1 revenue / net profit were + 10.9% / + 14.7% respectively year-on-year. The scale effect is significant, which greatly hedges the impact of the rise of raw materials and the decline of subsidies. In 2021 / 22q1, the gross profit margin was 11.3% / 11.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.1pp / - 0.3pp respectively. During the period, the expense rate decreased rapidly, and the expense rate in 2021 / 22q1 was 7.5% / 7.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.3pp / - 0.7pp respectively. Medium and long-term passenger car sales still benefit from the demand driven by the power of new energy products, and the sales volume at sea is growing rapidly; Benefiting from the replenishment cycle in the short term, chip companies are expected to gradually increase their libraries. Firmly optimistic about the independent rise, and realize the improvement of brand and market share with the help of reform. Not only the scale effect, but also the improvement of product structure under the lack of core.
Parts: relatively good revenue, track + company stand out
Affected by the sluggish demand for downstream passenger cars, the revenue / net profit of the auto parts industry increased by + 11.4% / + 18.1% year-on-year in 2021, and the gross profit margin decreased by 2.7pp year-on-year; The year-on-year growth rate of 22q1 revenue / net profit was - 4.3% / - 38.9% respectively, and the month on month growth rate was - 1.0% / + 22.8% respectively. The gross profit margin decreased by 3.9pp year on year, increased by 1.3pp month on month, and the expense rate during the period increased by 0.1pp year on year and decreased by 0.6pp month on month. Individual stocks showed differentiation, among which: 1) new power industrial chain ( Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ) revenue increased sharply against the trend, and the profit performance of lightweight 22q1 exceeded expectations; 2) Intelligent driving ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ) and intelligent cockpit ( Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ) accelerated penetration, driving revenue growth.
Motorcycle: supply creates demand, large displacement continues to be high boom
In 2021, the medium and large displacement motorcycle market (above 250cc) continued to perform well. In 2021 and 22q1, 333000 and 82000 motorcycles were sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 65.8% and + 49.7% respectively. From the perspective of the fluctuation of the price and net profit of and . With the further formation of China's motorcycle culture, the release of the upgrading and replacement demand of emerging consumer groups and the marginal improvement of the policy of banning and restricting motorcycles, we expect the growth rate of the medium and large platoon industry to be about 40% in 2022, reaching 400000 + vehicle sales in the whole year.
Investment advice
22q1's fund position is at the lowest level since the last three quarters, and the fund position in the automotive industry accounts for 2.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.6pp and a month on month increase of -0.9pp, among which Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic Co.Ltd(002048) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) and other heavy equity fund position market value accounts for a significant increase. Looking forward to 22q2, resumption of work and production + continuous growth of new energy demand + accelerated localization of supply chain become the key thrust:
Passenger cars: the resumption of work and production is gradually promoted, and we are firmly optimistic about the independent rise. In late April, SAIC, Tesla and Weilai gradually resumed work and production. We expect that the sales volume of the whole industry is expected to improve month on month from May to June, and will make up the early supply gap by working overtime, which has great flexibility. The penetration rate of new energy increased rapidly, and the monthly penetration rate of new energy exceeded 25% in March. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through reform. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ] and the beneficiary [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension: compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the iteration speed of new power models is faster, the supply chain verification cycle is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, driving the performance growth curve of industrial chain companies to become steeper. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ]. 2. Product dimension: the transformation of intelligent electric will bring about the reshaping of brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises continue to increase intelligent electric configuration to improve the market share and improve the brand: 1) intelligent increment: intelligent driving - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Jingwei hengrun-w], the beneficiary target [Nextel]; Smart cockpit: Acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], smart seat - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], lights - [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively); 2) Electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ]; New energy heat management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary [ Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, China's medium and large displacement motorcycles sold 82000 in 22q1, a year-on-year increase of + 49.7%. Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommend [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
Risk tips
Shortage of chip supply in automobile industry; The progress of resumption of work and production under the influence of the epidemic is not as expected; Fluctuations in raw material costs exceed expectations; The terminal demand of the automobile industry is lower than expected; The sales volume of automobile export is lower than expected; The tightening of emission ban and restriction policies led to the decline of motorcycle demand; The introduction of a large number of new models of foreign motorcycle brands has led to intensified market competition.
