\u3000\u3000 Petrochina Company Limited(601857) (601857)
Event: on January 13, 2022, the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by RMB 71-75 billion year-on-year in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 374% - 395%; Compared with 2019, the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 44.3-48.3 billion yuan, an increase of 97% - 106%, with an average increase of 40% - 43% in two years, the best level in the same period in recent seven years. In addition, the company expects to deduct non net profit of RMB 110-120 billion more than that in 2020, that is, the non net profit deducted in 21q4 is RMB 53.8-63.8 billion.
Benefiting from the rise of oil price, the profit of the company's oil and gas sales business increased significantly. According to Wande data, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 was USD 70.94/barrel, with a year-on-year increase of USD 27.73/barrel, with a year-on-year increase of 64.17%; the average price of WTI crude oil was USD 68.10/barrel, with a year-on-year increase of USD 28.63/barrel, with a year-on-year increase of 72.52%. Assuming that the company's oil and gas costs and expenses remain unchanged, based on the crude oil output of 922 million barrels in 2020, the profit of the company's oil and gas sales business will increase by about US $26 billion, about RMB 167.7 billion (calculated at the average exchange rate of US $to RMB of 6.45 yuan / US dollar in 2021).
Looking forward to the future, we are optimistic about the performance improvement brought by the continued rise of oil prices. In the short term, according to IEA data, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.55 million barrels in the week ended January 7, the seventh consecutive week, supporting the upward trend of oil prices; In the long run, driven by the reduction of global upstream investment in oil and gas and the gradual recovery of national economies after the epidemic control, we believe that the crude oil price center is expected to continue to rise in 2022, thus promoting the profitability of the company's exploration and production and oil and gas sales business. For oil refining and chemical business, we believe that with the control of the epidemic situation, the demand of the global refined oil market is expected to continue to recover, especially the demand for aviation kerosene, driven by the recovery of the global aviation industry, is expected to contribute to most of the demand increment of refined oil in 2022, and the oil price difference of refined oil may continue to widen, thus driving the growth of oil refining and chemical business. For natural gas and pipeline business, the company sold its main oil and gas pipelines, some gas storages, LNG terminals, preliminary oil and gas and other related assets (including the equity of the company) to the national pipe network group in 2020 and 2021 respectively to obtain the equity of the national pipe network group and the corresponding cash consideration; The company is expected to optimize the sales structure through asset transfer.
Layout new energy and actively promote energy transformation. In 2021, the company incorporated "green and low carbon" into one of the company's five strategies. The total capacity of new energy development and utilization was close to 7 million tons of standard coal / year. In 21 years, the total capacity of new energy development and utilization was 3.5 million tons of standard coal / year, growing rapidly. Among them, 240000 kW photovoltaic power generation projects have been completed and put into operation, with a hydrogen purification capacity of 4 tons / day, and 8 hydrogenation stations have been completed and put into operation; The newly obtained wind power generation resources and grid access index of 1.2 million KW have laid a foundation for subsequent scale development. The company has a clear green and low-carbon transformation route and strong resource endowment. Its development in the field of new energy can be expected in the future, which is expected to improve the valuation of the company.
Investment suggestion: considering that the price of crude oil continues to rise rapidly and the head is slower than before, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is reduced to RMB 92 / 1100 / 110.7 billion, and the Pb corresponding to the closing price on January 13, 2022 is 0.7 / 0.6 / 0.6 times. Considering that the company's PB valuation is at the bottom position since the beginning of 2012, with the improvement of the company's profit and the layout in the new energy field in the future, The valuation is expected to be repaired and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of crude oil price falling or fluctuating; Risk of falling prices of major petrochemical products; The risk of repeated epidemic affecting the demand for petrochemical products.
