Small food: the income is stable and the cost is under pressure. 1) Revenue side: “manufacturing type” is stable and “channel type” is differentiated. The growth rate of Qiaoyuan and Ganyuan is slightly affected by the Spring Festival, and the growth rate of Qiaoyuan and Ganyuan is + 224% / + 214% in the peak season, excluding the growth rate of “Qiaoyuan and Ganyuan” and “Qiaoyuan + 214% / + 214% in the peak season, and Qiaoyuan and Ganyuan + 214% in the peak season, respectively; “Channel type” Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) , Three Squirrels Inc(300783) and Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) showed differentiation, and 21q4 + 22q1 was + 15.4% / – 7.1% / + 8.7% year-on-year. 2) Profit side: continuous cost pressure and strong stability. Qiaqia, Taoli and Ganyuan partially resolved the cost pressure by locking the price in advance and raising the price flexibly. Among them, under the transmission of price increase in October last year, Qiaqia’s Q1 gross profit margin has achieved positive growth year-on-year. Ganyuan’s gross profit margin is under periodic pressure due to the continuous rise in the month on month price of palm oil based raw materials and the limited efficiency of Anyang factory, Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) in the case of channel sinking, it mainly adopts product structure optimization to transfer cost pressure. At the expense level, the cost of food enterprises seeking to expand channels for transformation continued, and maintained stability through negotiation.
Chain business type: the expansion of stores is accelerated and the differentiation of single stores. 1) Income side: Barbie group meal is strong, and the brine and milk bar are greatly affected by the epidemic Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) single stores were less affected by the epidemic, and group meals performed well. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 1.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%; In 2022q1, the total operating revenue was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.4%. In March, the epidemic situation in Shanghai was repeated. As a material support enterprise for people’s livelihood, the company’s order demand for takeout and group meals increased significantly, which offset the impact of passenger flow in some stores to a certain extent. The overall disturbance of the epidemic situation was small and the operation stability was strong. Among the leisure stewed flavor, it is estimated that the net number of stores opened in Juewei 22q1 exceeds 600. Zhou Heiya announced that 200 stores have been opened in Q1, and 49 new stores have been opened in narrow door meal eye statistics Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) q1. The rhythm of opening stores has differentiated under the repeated epidemic situation. Due to the impact of the epidemic in the first and second quarters and the constraints of sinking market efficiency, the pressure on single stores throughout the year is expected to continue Zhejiang Yiming Food Co.Ltd(605179) Direct stores opened faster, and stores in East China had a great impact due to the impact of the epidemic. 2) Profit side: Bobby enjoys low-cost pork dividends, and the profit side of brine and milk bar is under pressure. The gross profit margin of Barbie Q1 was 27.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.7pcts, mainly due to the continuous release of low-cost pork dividends. The gross sales difference was 23.0%, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.2pcts and a month on month increase of + 0.7pcts, and the profit elasticity was continuously released. At the cost side of leisure marinated flavor, the gross profit margin is affected by the high price of duck and sideline, and the expense rate is affected by the support of franchisees and the layout of all channels Zhejiang Yiming Food Co.Ltd(605179) as the high price of raw milk superimposes the amortization of Direct stores, the profit is under pressure at different stages.
Outlook: focus on certainty in the short term and opportunities for dilemma reversal in the medium and long term. 1) Small food: the superposition of base effect, the cost slows down, and the elasticity of 22q2 can be expected. ① Low base effect: in Q2 last year, due to the high base of household consumption in 2020, Qiaqia, Yanjin, Ganyuan, Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) and Three Squirrels Inc(300783) were at the bottom year-on-year. ② Marginal improvement of cost pressure: at present, the prices of some raw materials have improved month on month. Large single products such as Qiaqia, Ganyuan and peach and plum have been reduced through price increase and promotion. Multi SKU leisure food companies such as Yanjin, Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) and squirrels can adjust and balance through product structure. ③ Alpha opportunities for new products / new channels: Qiaqia has become a scarce deterministic target due to its stable operation and improved gross profit margin in advance under the great uncertainty of the epidemic situation; Yanjin is expected to continuously release reform dividends due to channel adjustment and product structure optimization in advance; Although Ganyuan has great cost pressure, considering the triple resonance of new products, new channels and new incentives, it is expected to usher in alpha opportunities. 2) Chain business format: Barbie Q2 enjoys certainty in combination, and the bittern and milk bar pay attention to the difficulties and opportunities. ① Epidemic prevention – Barbie: Barbie endogenous demand is highly measurable. In terms of extension, its acquired brands are expected to be consolidated in April to further enhance the elasticity of revenue growth. ② Dilemma reversal – Jue Wei & Zhou Heiya: in terms of rhythm, Q2 focuses on whether the opening of stores exceeds expectations, Q3 focuses on single store repair and profit elasticity, and considering the triple impact of the epidemic on Jue Wei’s main business, cost and food ecosystem, it is expected to usher in the opportunity of dilemma reversal if the marginal improvement of the epidemic situation.
Risk tips: repeated epidemic risk, food safety risk, franchisee management and brand counterfeiting risk, raw material price fluctuation and poor investment income.
