Key investment points:
Performance review of 21 & 22q1: compared with 20 years, the social service sector has achieved a slight repair in profit and income in 21 years, but the recovery progress of 22q1 is blocked, and the sector is still under pressure in the short term. 1) In the whole year of 21 years, the sector has achieved a slight repair. In terms of revenue, human resources (+ 78.3%), tourism retail (+ 28.7%), catering (+ 22.8%), natural scenic spots (+ 18.5%), hotels (+ 16%), and artificial scenic spots (+ 15.7%) all increased positively year-on-year. Human resources and tourism retail at the performance end continued to lead the growth. Hotels reversed losses year-on-year, and the comprehensive losses of scenic spots and tourism decreased slightly, but catering increased losses. 2) 22q1: the recovery progress of 22q1 sector is obviously blocked, and the performance is under pressure. The overall loss of the sector is equivalent to that in the same period of 20 years. Among them, the performance of human resources continues to be + 35.6% year-on-year, the loss of hotels decreases year-on-year, the performance of Tourism retail decreases by 10%, and the loss range of other sectors (scenic spots and catering) increases.
22q2-3 investment strategy: the recovery progress of social services is highly dependent on the epidemic affected area & travel policy, but the sector leader still has good conditions α Potential, if the callback focuses on the medium and long-term allocation opportunities of the leading enterprises: duty-free (medium free), hotels (Jinjiang + first trip + Huazhu + Junting), scenic spots (Songcheng + Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) + China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ), catering (jiumaojiu + hailun company).
1) hotel sector: the recovery degree of 22q1 RevPAR fell month on month. The goal of opening stores in 22 years was cautious, but the industry cleared again, which was good for the improvement of the concentration of leading enterprises. ① Business data recovery: the RevPAR of Jinjiang, ShouLv and Huazhu hotel groups recovered to 72.6% / 62.8% / 74.2% in the same period of 19 years respectively, and the recovery degree of RevPAR and occupancy rate decreased month on month; Compared with 19 years, house prices have not changed significantly, showing a certain toughness. ② The goal of opening stores in 22 years: Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) target 1500 stores (the same as that in 21 years), Huazhu group target 1500 stores (target 18002000 stores in 21 years), the first brigade target 18002000 stores this year (1400 stores in 21 years, but according to the company exchange meeting, the goal of opening stores in the future will be traced back according to the degree of epidemic). The goal of opening stores is cautious compared with that in 21 years. ③ Pipeline quantity: Jinjiang and the first brigade pipeline increased month on month compared with 21q4, but did not reach the historical high; The number of pipelines of Huazhu group fell by more than 300 month on month. ④ Looking forward to the future: the large-scale spread of the epidemic throughout the country will continue. During the epidemic period, the operation & cash flow of single small hotels will be under pressure. Although it has a significant impact on the performance of the hotel target 22q1-2, at the same time, the hotel industry may experience another round of cruel supply side clearing, which will help the follow-up concentration of leaders with good products and strong resources in the market and the improvement of operation data after recovery.
2) tax exempt sector: the performance was under significant pressure in March, and the gross profit margin of 22q1 improved month on month. From January to February, the revenue of China tax exemption was 13.1 billion yuan and the performance was 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of 20% at the same time. In March, the company achieved a performance of 163 million yuan. Considering the nationwide spread of the epidemic, the five-day closing of Haitang Bay in March, and the slight increase of rigid fees and discounts, the performance of the first quarter basically met the expectations. 22q1 gross profit margin was + 7.6pct month on month, but decreased by 5pct year-on-year, and there is still room for repair in the future. At present, affected by the epidemic situation, the discount intensity of China free has increased slightly month on month. In the future, it is necessary to track the epidemic trend and the change trend of discount. Considering the goal of “seeking benefits from management” in 22 years, profit assessment has become the focus of the company this year, and the significant correction of share price from the high level has reflected the market’s impact on 22q1-2 performance due to the epidemic, so it is suggested to focus on the allocation of correction.
3) scenic spot & Performing Arts: the performance of scenic spot 22q1 affected by the epidemic declined year-on-year, and the subsequent recovery is expected to continue to take the lead in peripheral tourism & leisure tourism. During the five-day “May Day” holiday in 2022, 160 million people traveled in China, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2% (a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% in Qingming) and a comparable recovery to 66.8% (68.0% in Qingming) in the same period before the epidemic; China’s tourism revenue reached 64.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.9% (a year-on-year decrease of 30.9% in Qingming), returning to 44.0% (39.2% in Qingming) in the same period before the epidemic.
The performance of Songcheng, Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) and 22q1 all decreased / increased year-on-year. Considering the rapid spread of Omicron, the summer tourism market may still be affected to some extent. However, at present, the underlying stock prices of the scenic spots have been adjusted to a relatively low position, which may respond to the above adverse factors to some extent. The follow-up suggestions focus on: ① progress of epidemic prevention and control; ② Progress of specific drugs in China; ③ Due to the change of epidemic policy, it is suggested to pay attention to the left opportunity of leading oversold: Song Cheng (Zhuhai Australia divestiture and optimize the investment mode, flatten the organization and management system, optimize the creation team, and support the platform development of the company), Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) (the incremental contribution of the operation of new hotel projects, the second phase of Nanshan Xiaozhai gradually promotes the re excavation of consumption potential, the cooperation of state-owned assets to build an animal kingdom, and looks forward to the implementation of extension projects) Pubei is expected to take the lead in the recovery of the business potential of Guyou town (Pubei is expected to take the lead in the recovery of the business potential in 2013).
4) catering sector: from March to April of the 22nd year, the impact of the epidemic was greater than that of H2 in the 21st year. We are optimistic about the callback layout opportunity of catering targets with both brand potential and expansion potential. According to the monthly data tracking, the catering industry was greatly affected by the epidemic from March to April: according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the national catering revenue in March was 293.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%; The same store sales of Starbucks (China) in the last week of March fell by nearly 50% year-on-year. In the second quarter, about one-third of its stores were still closed or only provided takeout services. In terms of valuation, most of the catering targets of Hong Kong stocks are now callback to historical lows. Although the recovery of 22q2-3 store data is still highly related to the recovery of the epidemic at that time, the stock price has partially responded in advance. It is suggested to focus on the catering targets with better medium and long-term single store model + subsequent promotion of capital expenditure + still large store expansion potential + the catering targets with historically low valuation (jiumaojiu + hailun company).
Human resources service sector: the performance of 21-22q1 is outstanding, and the resumption of work and production is imminent. It is optimistic that the subsequent expatriates will improve steadily The performance of Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) 2122q1 increased by 35.55% / 35.57% respectively, and the high growth continued. On April 29, Shanghai achieved a social clean-up, and the resumption of work and production is expected to be gradually promoted in the future. The impact on the entry of the company’s outsourcing employees will be gradually weakened, and the number of outsourcing employees may increase steadily. With the increase of macro employment pressure and the steady progress of resumption of work and production, the willingness of enterprises and job seekers to use flexible employment is expected to increase accordingly. It is not ruled out that relevant documents will be issued on the policy side to support flexible employment, continue to be optimistic about the growth potential of Kerui, and pay attention to the opportunity of Beijing Urban-Rural Commercial (Group) Co.Ltd(600861) oversold.
Investment advice: wait for recovery and pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities of undervalued leaders. The impact of the epidemic on the May Day holiday market or performance may be lower than that of Qingming this year, and the Q2 travel sector is expected to remain under pressure. However, looking ahead to the follow-up, the number of new epidemic lovers in Shanghai society was cleared for the first time on April 29, and the epidemic situation in China is steadily improving. We pay attention to the emotional repair of the follow-up sector and the medium and long-term allocation value of undervalued leaders.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the macroeconomic recovery was less than expected, the industry competition intensified, and the speed of opening stores & project construction was less than expected
