\u3000\u3000 Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) (002549)
Events
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 115-144 million, with a year-on-year increase of 60% - 100%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 101-130 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80% - 131%.
The performance is in line with expectations: the production and sales of traditional business are booming, and the loss of electronic special gas business is reduced year-on-year
According to the median value of the performance forecast, the annual net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 130 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80%, which is in line with the expectation. The substantial increase in performance is mainly due to the rise in the sales price of liquefied gas, pentane and other products, the vigorous production and sales, the year-on-year increase in the production and sales of carbon dioxide products, and the sales revenue of electronic special gas business
Under the policy of "dual control" of energy consumption, the competition pattern of carbon dioxide is improved, and the Q4 price is expected to increase steadily
1) the company has expanded production in Yueyang, Anhui and Fujian this year, and the total production capacity is expected to increase to 710000 tons from 460000 tons at the end of last year. 2) Looking forward to the fourth quarter, in the context of the "dual control" policy of energy consumption, the shutdown of some small chemical plants will lead to the relative limitation of the total supply of carbon dioxide. The upstream of the company is mainly large central enterprises and multinational companies, with stable operation. We expect Q4 liquid carbon dioxide business to maintain the simultaneous rise of volume and price.
Electronic specialty gas is expected to create a new growth pole: steady sales of rare gases and cut into synthetic gases
China's electronic special gas market is 15 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of about 20%, mainly used in integrated circuits (accounting for 70%) and other fields. The localization rate of China's electronic specialty gas is about 15%, and there is a wide space for domestic substitution.
The subsidiary of electronic special rare gas was established in 2018, which is a rare electronic special gas production enterprise in China with the layout of the whole industrial chain from gas source to purification, mixing, testing and sales. The company has a professional gas analysis laboratory, independently developed steel cylinder treatment technology, and the purification treatment is higher than the average level in China. At present, the company is stepping up the progress of international and Chinese certification, and the consignment cooperation with relevant agents has been fully carried out.
1) in 2021, rare gases were sold steadily and obtained relevant certification. A total of 19.38 million yuan of rare gas (krypton, xenon and neon) sales contracts were signed. 2) Cut into synthetic gases and sign special gas investment contracts. The products include hydrogen chloride, chlorine, high-purity fluorine, hydrogen fluoride, fluorine based mixed gas, hydrogen bromide, VOC standard gas, antimony pentafluoride, chlorine trifluoride, carbonyl fluoride, electronic grade acetylene, deuterium gas and other products. The total investment of the project is 720 million yuan. It is estimated that the annual income will be 650 million yuan and the tax will be 100 million yuan after it is put into operation.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 130 / 2.1 / 410 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 76% / 65% / 96% and a compound growth rate of 78%, and the corresponding PE will be 75 / 45 / 23 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
The production progress of the project is less than expected, and the sales of electronic special gas is less than expected.
