The overall performance of the industry increased year-on-year in 2021, and the epidemic did not affect the recovery trend: the overall revenue and net profit of the industry increased year-on-year in 2021: the overall operating revenue of SW automobile in 2021 was 3115241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 91.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. In 2021, the annual automobile sales volume was 26.275 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Driven by the improvement of sales volume, the revenue and net profit of SW automobile industry in 2021 achieved a year-on-year increase. The overall operating revenue of 2022q1sw automobile primary industry was 745094 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%; The net profit was 26.223 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%; The gross profit margin was 12.95%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.47 percentage points; The net interest rate was 3.91%, down 0.85 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue end of 2022q1 industry was affected by the epidemic, and the growth rate decreased year-on-year; The profit side was affected by the shortage of chips and the rise in the price of upstream raw materials, and the gross profit margin decreased. However, thanks to good cost control ability, Q1 performance increased month on month.
Affected by the epidemic situation and the rise in the price of raw materials, the profitability of 22q1 was temporarily under pressure, but it has improved month on month: the operating revenue of SW automobile subdivided industries, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, auto parts and auto services in the first quarter of 2022 increased by + 10.9%, – 42.5%, – 6.5% and – 17.5% respectively; The year-on-year growth rate of net profit was + 30.0%, – 83.5%, – 36.5% and – 40.0% respectively; The year-on-year changes in gross profit margin were -0.06%, + 0.56%, – 2.54% and + 1.70% respectively; The year-on-year changes in net interest rate were + 0.24%, – 2.24%, – 2.53% and – 0.41% respectively. Performance of 2022q1 in the subdivided industries: the revenue and net profit of passenger cars continued to grow, the cost control ability of various car enterprises was enhanced, and the cost level was further reduced during the period; Commercial vehicles still need to digest China’s five heavy truck inventory, so Q1 performance is under pressure, but it has turned loss into profit; Affected by the rising price of raw materials in the upstream, the gross profit margin of the industry in 2021q4 decreased as a whole, but thanks to good cost control ability and effective transmission to the downstream, the profitability of 2022q1 recovered; Under the influence of the epidemic, the overall sales volume of the automobile industry declined in 2022q1. Under this factor, the Q1 revenue and net profit growth of the automobile service sector performed poorly.
Investment suggestion: under the influence of epidemic situation, geopolitics and other factors in 2022q1, the downstream sales volume trend is not strong, the upstream commodity prices continue to rise, the prices of raw materials such as aluminum, steel, oil, rubber and chips required for automobile production are high, and the gross profit margin of vehicle and parts enterprises in the automobile industry is under pressure in the short term. Since the beginning of this year, many passenger car enterprises have transferred cost pressure by raising the price of models. In the current situation of epidemic spread and uncertain trend of external international factors, the leaders within the industry are more capable of resisting risks. We continue to recommend leaders in various sub sectors. We mainly recommend three main lines: (1) independent brand leader with strong new product cycle: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . (2) Parts enterprises closely related to the electric intelligent industrial chain with high growth certainty: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) . (3) Heavy truck enterprises with increasing market share and expected to usher in a performance inflection point: Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) .
Risk warning: the price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply; The impact of the shortage of automotive chips; The impact of repeated outbreaks; The demand recovery of heavy truck industry was less than expected.
