In the 21st year, the revenue increased steadily and the profit side was under pressure: in 2021, the food and beverage (CITIC) industry achieved a total operating revenue of 894297 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.95%, an overall net profit of 162043 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.73%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 156428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.89%. The food and beverage industry generally belongs to rigid demand. Although 2021 is affected by factors such as repeated outbreaks in many places and extreme weather, the overall sector gradually returns to normal and achieves steady growth throughout the year. The profit side is under pressure, mainly due to the rising cost of raw materials. 22q1 the food and beverage industry as a whole realized a total operating revenue of 264.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.14%, an overall net profit of 61.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.63%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 59.539 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.11%. The income and profit have increased, and the profit growth rate is better than the income growth rate.
The Baijiu sector has ended steadily in 21 years, and the 21q4 speed reduction and energy accumulation has made a good start this year: Baijiu enterprises will basically complete the annual goals in 2021, and will achieve a smooth conclusion in the first year of the 14th five year plan. The main listed companies achieved a total operating revenue of 308915 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.90%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 108.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.74%. Under the double pressure of repeated epidemic and economy, 22q1 basically landed smoothly in the peak season of the Spring Festival. The overall operating revenue of the sector was 113686 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.36%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 44.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.28%. Among them, high-end liquor performed steadily and released profit elasticity, with revenue / net profit attributable to parent company + 16.82 / + 21.61% year-on-year; Although the market expectation of secondary high-end liquor is slightly pessimistic, it continues to increase rapidly under the background of 21q4 energy accumulation, with revenue / net profit attributable to parent company + 35.21 / + 46.34% year-on-year; The performance of real estate liquor was differentiated, and some liquor enterprises showed high elasticity. The revenue / net profit of real estate liquor was + 25.28 / + 30.92% year-on-year. The gross profit margin of 22q1 was 80.40%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.69pcts. Under the background of price increase and product structure upgrading, the gross profit margin of high-end wine, sub high-end wine and local wine increased steadily, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.34 / + 1.21 / + 1.01ptcs respectively, and the profitability was stable and good. The beer sector grew steadily under the disturbance of the epidemic situation in 21 years, and the high-end process continued. In the 21st year, the listed beer enterprises achieved a revenue of 61.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.62%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 5.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.09%. The growth of 22q1 sector was slightly under pressure, and the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company reached RMB 17.325/1.526 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.82/19.48%. In the past 21 years, industry leading enterprises benefited from the optimization of high-end product structure, and the increase of ton price led to a significant increase in profitability. The gross profit margins of China Resources / Tsingtao Beer / heavy beer in the past 21 years were + 0.8 / + 1.4 / + 3.3pcts respectively. The gross profit margin / net profit margin of 22q1 sector was 39.29% / 8.81% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -4.62 / + 0.86pcts. Mainly affected by the rise of raw material costs and the adjustment of accounting standards, the gross profit rate decreased slightly, but generally speaking, the upward trend of ton price remains unchanged, and the industry is still in the process of upgrading in the long run.
In terms of cost, the industry performance of the food sector hit the bottom, and the marginal improvement of 22h2 is expected: the revenue of the dairy sector 21 / 22q1 reached 178494/48.415 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.70 / + 12.46%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.566/4.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.52 / + 23.42%. After the epidemic in 21 years, the demand for white milk was strong, and the income of dairy enterprises increased steadily. 21q1 in the context of the slowing down of raw milk cost pressure, coupled with the large volume of high-end products and the improvement of structure & the release of gross sales difference, it is expected to drive the year-on-year improvement of profitability. Seasoning sector 21 / 22q1 achieved revenue of 44.565/12.389 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 5.72 / + 1.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.948/2.507 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of -11.89 / – 7.20%. In 21 years, the overall demand and cost of the condiment sector were under pressure. Before the Spring Festival in 22 years, the condiment enterprises delivered well. In March, the epidemic repeatedly disturbed the demand of the catering side, the delivery rhythm of enterprises and the market promotion. 22q1 under the background of high base, the pressure on the income side of most condiment enterprises still exists, and the 22q2-q3 condiment sector is expected to be light. On the cost side in the past 22 years, although the price increase alleviated part of the cost pressure, the price of raw materials continued to rise this year, and the cost pressure is still large. In the future, it is still necessary to closely track the inflection point of demand and cost. The 21 / 22q1 of the leisure food sector achieved revenue of 71.789/18.481 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 9.34 / + 0.85%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.762/1.169 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 26.10 / – 34.91%. Under the background of 21 years’ high base, the traditional supermarket channels at the channel end of the sector have been greatly impacted by new retail channels such as community group purchase, the income growth has slowed down, and the upward cost pressure has led to the pressure on profits. 22q1 under the influence of the wrong Spring Festival and the disturbance of the epidemic, the overall operation of the sector is under pressure. Raw material prices continued to rise, and the performance of 22q1 sector was weak year-on-year. Looking forward to the whole year, after the epidemic situation tends to be stable and the demand gradually warms up, the sector is expected to bring higher performance growth.
Investment suggestion: on the whole, after March, the epidemic situation has been repeated under the disturbance of overseas wars, resulting in pressure on moving sales and rising costs. In the short term, we try to find deterministic opportunities in the sector under the disturbance of uncertain factors. In terms of Baijiu, with the recent decline of valuation, the layout value of Baijiu industry has gradually emerged. In the medium and long term, the consumption upgrading is still on the way, and the concentration of Baijiu industry still has great room for improvement. At present, there are two main investment lines: focus on deterministic growth varieties and undervalued improvement varieties: 1) the spot epidemic in various regions is expected to gradually ease after May. The recent period of serious epidemic is the traditional off-season of Baijiu in March. It is expected that the overall impact on 22h1 will be small and will not affect the performance judgment of the overall industry; 2) The valuation of maowu Luzhou and other high-end Baijiu fell back to 30 times or less and entered the value distribution range; 3) At the current time point, we mainly recommend deterministic growth and undervalued improvement varieties, including Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . It is suggested to pay attention to the Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , when the valuation is adjusted to the reasonable allocation range in the medium and long term.
In terms of mass food, in the first half of 22 years, under the background of epidemic disturbance and weak demand as a whole, the growth rate of the income side was under pressure. At the same time, due to the higher than expected cost, the upward profit end may continue to be under pressure. Although there are many external disturbance factors, the overall public food sector has experienced early correction and gradually stepped into a reasonable range. At the same time, after 22q1, the apparent growth pressure will also be effectively released with the decline of the mass product base. Based on this, it is suggested to focus on two main investment lines: 1) grasp the certainty of short-term profit. First, recommend Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , which is expected to release profit elasticity under the background of narrowing the increase of raw milk and has the safety margin of valuation; At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) and Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , which have relatively smooth price increase, high certainty of annual growth and strong pricing power on the cost side; 2) After the sector valuation enters a reasonable range, grasp the deterministic opportunity of medium and long-term industry competition pattern. Focus on Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , where the high-end process of the industry is advancing steadily and the demand is expected to recover after the epidemic.
Risk warning: food safety incidents have an impact on the industry; The impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on household consumption; Demand is lower than expected; Risks of policy changes; Industry competition intensifies, affecting performance growth.
