Market review last week:
From April 25 to April 29, 2022, the food and beverage sector (Shenwan) rose by 0.69%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.27%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 0.07%. The food and beverage sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.98 percentage points, ranking fourth among the weekly increases and decreases of Shenwan’s 31 primary sub industries.
Core view: the annual report and the first quarterly report show confidence and pay attention to the certainty of segments
Baijiu: the annual report and the first quarter report show confidence and focus on the certainty of the segment. Last week, the annual report and the first quarterly report of the Baijiu sector were disclosed. Most liquor companies achieved relatively brilliant performance in 2021, among which the performance of maowu Luzhou, a high-end Baijiu, exceeded expectations. Key companies in the Baijiu industry in 2022q1 achieved a net profit of 46.157 billion yuan. Despite the high base of 2021q1, the growth rate in the first quarter of this year remained bright, with a year-on-year growth rate of +26.31%, and a year-on-year growth rate of +8.38pct. Based on the rebound of the epidemic, the consumption recovery is still on the way. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-end Baijiu sector with strong toughness. Maotai’s performance has a stable growth and strong certainty. It is suggested to give priority to the layout Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 2021 saw steady growth in performance, high morale in management reform and high price control, boosting the brand image and rating. At present, the rating has stood at 980 yuan and is expected to exceed 1000 yuan in the whole year Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) the volume and price of medium and high-grade liquor have risen simultaneously, the structure has been upgraded smoothly, the company’s strong channel operation ability and equity incentive have boosted the internal morale, which is expected to accelerate the nationalization. It is suggested to pay attention to the high growth liquor enterprises with large single product volume and strong potential in the advantageous market Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) nationalization accelerated, and the revenue of internal participants / drunkards in 2021 was + 80.71% / 88.94% year-on-year Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) 2021: the blue and white varieties will achieve high growth In Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) year, the ton price of raw pulp increased significantly in 2021.
Beer: the first quarterly report disclosed one after another, and the safety margin of valuation appeared. The beer sector rose 2.02% last week. At present, the valuation of the beer sector is still low, and the safety margin appears. Last week, several beer manufacturers disclosed the first quarterly report that Q1 Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 were + 11.66% / 100.80% year-on-year respectively, turning losses into profits in the first quarter. In 2022, Q1 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent company were + 3.14% / 10.20% respectively year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic in March, the sales volume declined slightly. With the relief of the epidemic in major markets such as Shandong and Shanghai, the sales volume in peak season is expected to rebound Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) 2022 Q1 high-grade / medium-grade / economic beer operating revenue increased by 24.0% / 13.2% / 12.8% respectively year-on-year. Through high-end brand and continuous expansion of emerging channels, the company still made a good start in the first quarter under the influence of the epidemic.
Condiments: the disturbance of the epidemic and the rise in the price of raw materials have dragged down the performance of the industry, waiting for the recovery of demand and the arrival of the inflection point. In 2021 and 2022, the revenue of Q1 condiment sector increased steadily, but the growth rate of profit side lagged slightly. In 2021, the 20 companies in the condiment sector focused on achieved a total revenue of 91.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 14.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4%; In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 25.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9%. The disturbance of the epidemic situation and the rise in the price of raw materials are still the main reasons for the pressure on the profit side of the condiment sector; In 2021, the degree of channel revenue recovery and the ability to raise prices have become the main reasons for the performance differentiation of the sector. In 2022, Q1 catering and other consumption scenes were reduced due to the intensification of the epidemic, as well as logistics supply congestion and other factors, which put significant pressure on the performance of the sector.
Investment advice
Plate configuration: Baijiu dairy products beer snack food condiments;
Baijiu: related targets: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ;
Beer: related target: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , with high growth expectation in future performance; Dairy products: relevant subject matter: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , which makes concerted efforts in production capacity, channels and products.
Risk warning: risk of tightening industrial policies; Risk of epidemic spread in China; Food safety issues.
