\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 459 Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) )
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022, and the profit was + 35% / + 378% year-on-year respectively. The company’s integrated production capacity expanded steadily, and new battery technology continued to make breakthroughs; Maintain buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
The profit in 2021 increased by 35% year-on-year and that in 2022q1 increased by 378% year-on-year: the company released the annual report of 2021, realizing a revenue of 41.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.80%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 2.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.31%, and the deduction of non-profit was 1.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.71%. The company also released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the revenue was 12.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.12%, the profit was 750 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 378.27%, and the non-profit was 702 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108364%. The results of the company’s annual report and the first quarterly report meet market expectations.
Component shipments grew rapidly and the proportion of distribution shipments increased: in 2021, the company’s battery component shipments were 25.45gw, a year-on-year increase of 60.26%, of which overseas shipments accounted for 60%. In 2021, the component revenue was 39.460 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.23%. Affected by the rising price of silicon materials, the gross profit margin of the company’s components fell by 1.94 percentage points year-on-year to 14.15% in 2021. It is estimated that the unit net profit is about 0.075-0.08 yuan / W. The price of silicon material in 2022q1 is still fluctuating at a high level, and the profitability of the company remains resilient. The overall gross profit margin is 14.79%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.01% and a month on month decrease of 0.96%. It is estimated that the unit net profit exceeds 0.01 yuan / W. In 2021, the company increased sales through distribution channels, and the proportion of distribution shipments increased to 35%.
Continuous breakthrough of new battery technology: the company actively promotes the R & D and mass production of new battery technology, and the new battery technology continues to make breakthroughs. At present, the conversion efficiency of the company’s n-type high-efficiency battery pilot test line has reached 24.60%, and the efficiency of the best battery batch has exceeded 24.8%. At the same time, the R & D center actively prepares the pilot test line of heterojunction high-efficiency battery and successively tests the production, so as to realize the long-term planning of higher power components in the future.
The integrated capacity continues to expand, and the shipment target in 2022 is 35-40gw: by the end of 2021, the company’s component capacity is nearly 40gw, and the silicon wafer and battery capacity is about 80% of the component capacity. According to the company’s plan, the company’s component capacity will exceed 50gw by the end of 2022, and the silicon wafer and battery capacity will be about 80% of the component capacity. In 2022, the company will further cultivate the global market, and the shipment target of battery components is 35-40gw.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company’s profitability and Industry Supply and demand, we adjusted the company’s predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 2.64/3.45/4.32 yuan (the original predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2023 was 2.64/3.42 yuan), corresponding to a P / E ratio of 30.8/23.6/18.9 times; Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Component price competition exceeds expectations; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Risk of overseas trade barriers; Photovoltaic policy does not meet expectations; New technology iteration risk; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
