\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 169 Bank Of Beijing Co.Ltd(601169) )
Key investment points
Earnings highlights: 1. Steady revenue growth and upward net profit growth. The annual revenue of 2021 remained stable, and the revenue growth rate of 1q22 narrowed slightly due to the narrow growth rate of non interest income; Expenses widened year-on-year, and the growth rate of PPOP narrowed. The asset quality remained stable, the provision provision was slightly slowed down, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit was upward, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 6.6% in 2021 and the first quarter of 22, respectively. 2. The first quarter had a good start, both deposits and loans were prosperous, and the asset negative structure was optimized. The loan scale increased to a record high in the first quarter and remained stable in the first quarter. Loans 4q and 1q were – 0.1 and 4.5% month on month respectively. Loans increased by nearly 76 billion in the first quarter, an increase of 12 billion over the same period last year. The proportion of total loans rose to an all-time high of 56.5%. Deposits made a good start in the first quarter, with a beautiful growth rate of 8.4% month on month. On the basis of – 0.7% mom in the fourth quarter, it increased by 8.4% mom. The new scale in a single quarter reached 142.7 billion, an increase of 67.9 billion over the same period in 21 years, and the proportion of interest bearing liabilities increased to 67.2% mom, which is also the best level in recent five years. 3. Asset quality is generally sound. Non performing: the non-performing rate at the end of 21 and the non-performing rate in the first quarter were flat at 1.44% month on month. From the perspective of future non-performing pressure, the single quarter annualized non-performing net generation rate in the first quarter fell sharply to 0.84% month on month, and the pressure on asset quality will be relieved to a great extent in the future. Overdue: in 2021, the overdue rate was 1.39%, and loans overdue for more than 90 days accounted for 0.56%, which was greatly improved compared with half a year. 3. Provision: in the first quarter, the provision coverage ratio increased by + 1.28% to 211.50% month on month, and the loan allocation ratio increased by 2bp to a high of 3.05%, and the risk offset ability remained basically stable. 4. In the first quarter, with the increase of credit supply, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio remained upward. In 2021, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 9.86%, 13.45% and 14.63% respectively, with a chain comparison of + 33bp, + 3.11pct and + 3.10pct. 1q22 core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 9.87%, 13.37% and 14.56% respectively, with a chain comparison of + 1bp, – 8bp and – 7bp.
Insufficient financial report: 1q22 net interest income was – 1.0% month on month, and the interest margin was under pressure due to the impact of repricing. In the first quarter, the scale of interest bearing assets increased by 2.3% month on month driven by the good start of credit. Under the influence of the downward trend of asset yield, the interest margin decreased 4bp to 1.69% month on month. From the perspective of the disassembly of the interest margin, the fluctuation of the interest margin is mainly affected by the return on the asset side, and the lower cost 1q on the liability side contributes to the interest margin positively. The asset side yield was affected by repricing in the first quarter, with a month on month decline of 14bp. It is expected that the first quarter is mainly affected by loan repricing ( Bank Of Beijing Co.Ltd(601169) Q1 loan repricing accounts for more than 54%). In the future, with the end of the epidemic, the demand on the asset side will pick up, the supply of retail credit will accelerate, and the proportion of high-yield retail credit will continue to increase, which will stabilize the yield on the asset side. The reduction of the upper limit of deposit pricing on the liability side can further slow down the company’s debt cost, and the interest margin is expected to remain flat and stable.
Investment suggestion: 2022e, 2023e Pb 0.42x/0.38x; PE 4.21x/3.92x (Urban Commercial Bank Pb 0.73x/0.65x; PE 6.02x / 5.30x), the company operates steadily, retail transformation has achieved initial results, continuous optimization and adjustment of structure has driven the repair of performance in the past 20 years, asset quality has continued to consolidate, and stock risks have been cleared faster. At present, the safety margin of the company’s valuation is high. We look forward to the empowerment of financial technology in the future. We suggest paying attention to it.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 69.774/74.214/78.979 billion yuan (the previous value is 77.571/85.301 / – billion yuan), with a growth rate of 5.4% / 6.4% / 6.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 237.11/252.99/270.20 billion yuan (the previous value was 238.34/256.73 / – billion yuan), with a growth rate of 6.7% / 6.8% / 6.8%. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities and the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the company’s loan yield is adjusted to 4.50% / 4.50% / 4.50%; The bond investment yield is 3.10% / 3.10% / 3.10%. 2. The company’s deposits are facing competitive pressure, and the interest payment rate is adjusted to 1.98% / 1.98% / 1.98%. 3. The quality of the company’s assets is good, the provision is weakened, and the provision expenditure / average loan is adjusted to 1.35% / 1.35% / 1.35%.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
