\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 225 Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) )
Key investment points
Shaanxi is the leader of power coal, with significant competitive advantage. 1) Resource advantages: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) coal resources have rich reserves, excellent quality, good storage conditions and less natural disasters. More than 97% of the coal resources are located in high-quality coal mining areas such as Northern Shaanxi mining areas (Shenfu, Yuheng) and binhuang (Binchang, Huangling). At present, the coal reserves are 14.9 billion tons, the recoverable reserves are 8.6 billion tons and the recoverable life is more than 70 years. 2) Capacity advantages: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) coal production capacity is reasonably distributed. The company has an approved production capacity of about 140 million tons / year, and more than 97% of the production capacity is located in the large coal bases mainly developed by the state in the 13th five year plan: Shendong base, Northern Shaanxi base and Huanglong base. The No.1 and No.2 Ningtiao coal mines in Northern Shaanxi will have obvious advantages in terms of production capacity of ten million tons, and the No.1 and No.2 hongtiao coal mines in Northern Shaanxi will have more advantages in terms of production capacity. 3) Technical advantages: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) vigorously promote the construction of "intelligent mine" and "intelligent mining area", actively build the development pattern of "intelligent systematization and system intelligence" of coal mine, the proportion of intelligent production capacity reaches 95%, and the production auxiliary systems of all mines are intelligent. Zhangjiamao mining has become the first full mine intelligent demonstration benchmark in the national coal industry, leading the rapid development of intellectualization in the national coal industry.
Coal: nuclear increase in short-term capacity and injection in long-term group. 1) Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) actively implement the relevant requirements of relevant national ministries and commissions on "stabilizing growth and ensuring supply", and increase the production capacity of Sunjiacha mine, hongliulin mine, yuandatan mine, Ningtiaota mine and zhangjiamao mine, with a total increase of 8 million tons of approved production capacity. In addition, xiaobaodang No. 1 coal mine is also applying for an increase from 15 million tons to 17 million tons, and the growth of coal production capacity can be expected. 2) By the end of June 2021, Shaanxi coal group (excluding Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ) has five pairs of main mines under construction, with a total capacity of 30 million tons / year. They are all mines with large single mine capacity and high production efficiency, mainly located in advanced production areas such as Northern Shaanxi and Guanzhong. After the completion of the mine under construction, considering avoiding horizontal competition, the group's assets are more likely to be injected into the listed company. At that time, the Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) approved production capacity will further increase to about 170 million tons.
Focus on high-quality assets and broaden the development direction of equity investment Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) based on the capital market and in accordance with the national target direction of 30 / 60 carbon peak and carbon neutralization, it has optimized the industrial investment map, established an investment consulting model, and distributed high-quality assets in new energy, new materials, new economy and other industries. Focus on the leading enterprises of "world-class and China's most", and incubate new projects for the transformation and upgrading of the company. Timely intervene in the track of emerging industries to explore and cultivate the second growth curve for the company. The total amount of investment income and income from changes in fair value of the company in 2021 was 4.399 billion yuan, accounting for 10.81% of the total profit.
High dividend returns to shareholders, highlighting the investment value Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) the announcement on the shareholder return plan for the next three years (20202022) requires that, except for the company's major capital expenditure arrangements or other major special circumstances approved by the general meeting of shareholders, when the company is profitable in the current year and the accumulated undistributed profit is positive, the company will distribute dividends in cash, and the profit distributed in cash every year shall not be less than 40% of the distributable profit realized in the current year and the amount shall not be less than 4 billion yuan. From 2014 to 2021, the company accumulated 33.114 billion yuan of cash dividends, including 13.088 billion yuan of cash dividends in 2021, with a dividend ratio of 61.91%, far exceeding the dividend commitment, setting a new high since the company was listed, which fully demonstrates the investment value of the company.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: the base price was raised to 675 yuan from 535, resulting in the price rise of the long-term association exceeding expectations. We expect the company's operating revenue to be 159217 billion yuan, 162396 billion yuan and 163827 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 27.475 billion yuan, 28.510 billion yuan and 28.736 billion yuan respectively (the above forecast is 24.897 billion yuan and 29.377 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023), and the earnings per share to be 2.83, 2.94 and 2.96 yuan respectively, The current share price is 17.21 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 6.1x/5.9x/5.8x respectively. Under the tight supply and demand situation of thermal coal, the high coal price fluctuates, superimposed with the nuclear increase of production capacity, and the company's profit is expected to continue to exceed market expectations. We maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the release of coal mine capacity is limited, the coal price has fallen sharply, and there is a risk of financial budget overrun.
