\u3000\u3000 Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) (002895)
Event: the company issued the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan (Draft).
The growth rate of performance appraisal is fast, and equity incentive shows confidence: the company plans to grant 8.14 million restricted shares to incentive objects, accounting for 1.67% of the total share capital of the company, including 7.14 million shares for the first time. The total number of incentive objects involved in the first grant of the incentive plan is 483, mainly including the company's directors, senior managers, middle managers and technical (business) backbone. The grant price of the first grant and reserved rights and interests is RMB 12.48 per share. If the reserved rights and interests are granted in 2022, the company level performance assessment target is that the net profit in 22 and 23 years is not less than RMB 500 or 800 million. If the reserved rights and interests are granted in 2023, the performance assessment target is that the net profit in 23 and 24 years is not less than RMB 800 or 1.2 billion.
Firmly optimistic about the company's new energy layout under the advantages of resources and technology:
1) high quality phosphate rock resources lay the foundation for the company's medium and long-term growth: the company sits on high-quality phosphate rock resources in Guizhou Province, with a current capacity of 3 million tons and a long-term equity capacity of 7.4 million tons, providing important support for the company's medium and long-term development;
2) under the technology of hemihydrate phosphoric acid and phosphogypsum gel filling, the company has the ability to increase production capacity: the only hemihydrate wet process phosphoric acid production process in China independently developed by the company belongs to the international leading level, and has obvious advantages in cost and energy consumption. At the same time, phosphogypsum treatment technology solves the worldwide problems restricting the development of wet process phosphorus chemical industry.
3) with the release of iron phosphate and purified phosphoric acid capacity, the company can grow rapidly in the next few years: with the explosion of electric vehicle and energy storage demand, the demand for lithium iron phosphate increases rapidly, and drives the explosion of upstream purified phosphoric acid and iron phosphate demand. The company cooperates with GuoXuan and Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) respectively to form two mineralization integrated bases. The first phase of 100000 tons of iron phosphate products is expected to be put into operation in the first half of 2022. We estimate that there will be a certain gap in the supply of iron phosphate in 2022. The company will become the production capacity of phosphorus chemical transformation enterprises with obvious first mover advantage.
4) fluorine extraction technology opens up space: the company's anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, a by-product of wet process phosphoric acid, has obvious cost advantages. In the future, the company can further extend downstream to 6F, PVDF and other products around fluorine resources.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 350 million, RMB 660 million and RMB 1.02 billion respectively, corresponding to 33, 17 and 11 times PE respectively. We are firmly optimistic about the transformation of the company's lithium phosphate fluoride new energy materials with large growth space, maintain the "buy" investment rating and continue to make firm recommendations.
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, the project construction progress is less than expected, and the intensified competition leads to the decline of product price.
