\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 466 Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) )
Event: on April 30, the company released 2021 annual report and 22q1 quarterly report. In the 21st year, the revenue reached 7.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 137%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 213%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.334 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 203%. The revenue of 21q4 was 3.79 billion yuan, an increase of 566% year-on-year and 149.11% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 312% year-on-year and 249% month on month; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.455 billion yuan, an increase of 555% year-on-year and 1131% month on month. 22q1 revenue was 5.257 billion yuan, an increase of 481% year-on-year and 39% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1443% and a month on month increase of 115%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 188.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%. Resource advantages provide a solid guarantee for the release of the company’s performance, and the company ushers in the rise of both volume and price. (1) Volume: in 2021, the company produced 43700 tons of lithium salt products, with a year-on-year increase of 14.84%; The sales volume was 47700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.64%; 953900 tons of lithium concentrate were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 64.49%; The sales volume was 551100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 56.26%. (2) Price: in 2021, the average sales price of lithium products increased from 49200 yuan / ton in 2020 to 105200 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 113.74%. The average sales price of lithium concentrate was US $738 / ton, an increase of 14.24% over 646 yuan / ton in 2020. (3) Gross profit: the gross profit per ton of lithium salt in 2021 was 65000 yuan / ton, up 457.94% year-on-year from 11600 yuan / ton in 2020; The gross profit per ton of lithium concentrate products was US $458.32/ton, up 13.46% year-on-year from US $403.94/ton in 2020. (4) The performance of 22q1 is mainly driven by the sharp rise in the price of lithium salt and the simultaneous rise in the price and volume of lithium concentrate products. According to the announcement of Igo, the price of 2022h1 lithium concentrate is 1770 US dollars, with a sharp increase in month on month, and the output is 270000 tons, an increase of 4% month on month.
Sitting on the world’s best lithium and salt lake resources, it has created a deep moat. (1) Resource distribution: Taking the world’s largest greenbushes lithium mine as the base, Sichuan Yajiang Cuola lithium mine as the resource reserve, and through participation in sqm, the world’s best salt lake resources are distributed, and Zabuye Salt Lake is distributed as one of the best salt lakes in China, creating a deep moat and achieving self-sufficiency in lithium raw materials. (2) Rapid expansion of high-quality resource capacity: greenbushes is expected to achieve full capacity in phase II this year, and the long-term capacity of chemical grade lithium concentrate is expected to reach more than 2.5 million tons / year; Atacama Salt Lake plans to expand its production capacity to 210000 tons of lithium carbonate and 40000 tons of lithium hydroxide in 2023; Zabuye is expected to expand its production to no less than 30000 tons of LCE / year in 2025, and the company can grow.
The issuance of Hong Kong stocks is imminent, and the smelting capacity will meet the rapid expansion. (1) The company’s previous production capacity construction progress has stalled due to debt and capital problems. At present, the company’s Hong Kong stock issuance is in progress, and it is expected to solve the M & a loan debt at one time. (2) The company’s capacity under construction is expected to expand rapidly: at present, the smelting capacity under construction mainly includes Sichuan Suining Anju project (expected to be completed in the second half of 2023 and enter the commissioning stage), Chongqing Tongliang metal lithium plant (phase I is expected to be completed in 2023) and Australia quinana lithium hydroxide plant (phase I is expected to reach production by the end of 2022). The company’s medium-term planned lithium chemical product capacity exceeds 110000 tons / year, which will usher in rapid expansion.
Investment suggestion: the lithium price is expected to remain high, and the company’s lithium resources and smelting expansion continue to advance. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 13.230 billion yuan, 14.812 billion yuan and 16.184 billion yuan. Based on the closing price on April 29, 2022, the corresponding PE is 9x, 8x and 7x respectively, maintaining the rating of “recommendation”.
Risk tips: the demand is less than expected, the price of lithium has fallen sharply, and its own projects are less than expected.
