\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
Key investment points
Performance overview
22q1 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) achieved an operating revenue of 4.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.7%, dragged down by the decrease in investment income, and the performance was lower than expected; The weighted average return on net assets was 1.22%, down 1.34pct year-on-year. By business line, the year-on-year growth rate of net income from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest and investment in 22q1 was - 10% / 27% / - 1% / - 16% / - 167% respectively, accounting for 35% / 3% / 49% / 21% / - 24% of total revenue.
Asset management revenue was basically flat
Equity market fluctuations affect asset management business: 22q1 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) asset management business net income of 2.34 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Since the beginning of the year, the equity market has fluctuated greatly, and the management scale of public funds has declined, but e fund and GF fund still maintain the leading position in the industry. According to wind data, as of April 29, the non commodity AUM of e fund and GF were 1084.4 billion yuan and 628.9 billion yuan respectively, ranking the first third in the market.
Pension will boost the expansion of the public offering market: after the reform of the pension system was launched in the 1980s, the United States brought a lot of funds to the mutual fund market. According to ICI statistics, 45% of the IRA plan was used to buy mutual funds at the end of 2020. On April 21, 2022, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the development of individual pensions, which stipulates that individual pensions shall implement the individual account system, and the account funds can be used to buy financial products such as bank financial management, savings deposits, commercial endowment insurance and public funds that meet the regulations. The promotion of China's individual pension system is expected to boost the expansion of the public offering market, and e fund and GF fund will benefit as head companies.
Brokerage business declined slightly
22q1 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) achieved a net income of 1.65 billion yuan from brokerage business, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. It is expected that the income from purchasing and selling financial products on a commission basis will decline to varying degrees, but the income from selling on a commission basis will decline more. According to the data of China Foundation Association, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) consignment stock + mixed public offering fund holding scale / non commodity foundation holding scale ranks among the top three securities companies for a long time, and the short-term pressure will not affect the subsequent consignment ability.
Partial recovery of investment banking business
22q1 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) achieved a net income of 150 million yuan from investment banking business, an increase of 27% year-on-year, mainly due to the low base of 21q1 and the gradual recovery of investment banking business from the impact of risk events. According to the statistics of wind, the underwriting scale of 22q1 shares and bonds of the company was 2.1/41.5 billion yuan respectively, and the market share was 0.5% / 1.8% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5/1.7pct. As of April 28, there were 15 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) ipo reserve projects.
Proprietary income detracts from performance
22q1 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) realized a net investment income of - 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 167%. It is judged that the high base of 21q1 (a year-on-year increase of 48%) and the large fluctuation of 22q1 capital market are caused by the relatively high self operated directional exposure of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation
Dragged down by the investment income, the company's 22q1 performance was lower than expected. It is expected that the investment banking business will gradually recover and the asset management + wealth management business chain will continue to improve its performance contribution. It is estimated that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be - 3% / 26% / 22%, and the corresponding BPS will be 14.97/16.19/17.68 yuan per share. Give the company 1.5 times Pb in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 22.45 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The macro-economy has declined significantly; The recovery of investment banking business was less than expected.
