\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 155 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) )
Event:
The first quarterly report of 2022 was released, during which the operating revenue was 291 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 21 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20%; Deduction of non parent net profit of 8 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33%.
The performance in the first quarter was in line with expectations: revenue increased significantly, gross profit margin improved month on month, and orders continued to grow
The substantial growth of revenue in the first quarter of 2022 is due to the confirmation of orders for automation equipment of new energy vehicles. The gross profit margin increased by 23.9% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin decreased by 1.7% year-on-year. The sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate were 1.7% / 7.2% / 13.3% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.6pct / – 2.7pct/3.2pct. The company attaches great importance to R & D, and the R & D expenditure in a single quarter is at a high level. At the end of the first quarter, the inventory / contract liabilities were RMB 400 million / 240 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 21% / 26%, indicating strong market demand and rapid growth of the company’s orders.
Acquire Ningde Dongheng machinery, cut into the structural parts of lithium battery module, and make a major breakthrough in the layout of new products
Ningde Dongheng machinery is mainly engaged in precision structural parts of lithium batteries, which are widely used in the shell structure of power battery modules. According to the announcement, its main customer is a key international vehicle enterprise.
From 2020 to 2021, the operating revenue of Dongheng machinery is RMB 410 / 900 million respectively. Its lithium battery structure is expected to have upstream and downstream coordination with the company’s new energy vehicle automation equipment, further improve the company’s production capacity, strengthen the binding with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and implement the two wheel drive development strategy of new energy vehicle equipment and products.
The grant of the equity incentive plan is completed, demonstrating the confidence of the management; The current share price is 19% lower than the grant price
In 2022, the equity incentive plan granted a total of 1 million restricted shares at a price of 108 yuan (the current stock price is 87 yuan), with a total of 148 directors, senior executives and business backbones of the target company.
New energy vehicle model group / pack equipment leader, five factors driving performance acceleration
The five factors are: 1) the growth of new energy vehicles; 2) Improve the automation rate of equipment; 3) Domestic substitution; 4) Globalization; 5) Breakthroughs in new products and new fields.
It is estimated that China’s module / pack line market will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 19% from 2021 to 2025. Driving forces for growth: 1) the demand for lithium battery equipment continues to grow; 2) The automation rate of module / pack is improved.
From domestic substitution to global supply. 1) The company’s market share in China will be about 25% in 2020, and there is still room for further improvement. 2) New energy vehicles in Europe and the United States are growing rapidly. It is estimated that the market scale of European / American module / pack line will reach 8.3 billion yuan / 5.3 billion yuan respectively in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 20% / 67%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 270 / 46 / 630 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 281% / 73% / 36% respectively; The corresponding PE is 21 / 12 / 9 times from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the expansion of new products is less than expected, and the progress of asset restructuring is less than expected.
