\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 560 Crown Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688560) )
Focus on new composite membrane materials, with steady growth in performance. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.289 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 123 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.53%; 22q1 operating income was 383 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.27%. Founded in 2007, the company is deeply engaged in new composite membrane materials and is mainly engaged in Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery backplane business. Its revenue accounts for 83% in 2021, and its shipment volume ranks among the top three in the industry. Based on mastering the formula and production process of a series of composite membrane products with independent intellectual property rights in the development process, the company develops and arranges new businesses such as photovoltaic packaging adhesive film in the photovoltaic industry to form a profit supplement. At the same time, the force layout has the technical homology with the photovoltaic backplane in the field of lithium battery aluminum plastic film. The new business is expected to become an important profit growth point of the company in the future, and the future revenue structure will undergo a benign transformation.
The demand for aluminum-plastic film is strong, and the wave of domestic substitution is surging. The global aluminum-plastic film market is monopolized by Japanese and Korean enterprises, and the domestic production rate is less than 20% in 2020. It is difficult to match the supply position of domestic aluminum-plastic film with the market consumption position, and the demand is expected to increase significantly in the future, mainly due to: 1) the conservative expansion of overseas aluminum-plastic film manufacturers; 2) the rise of soft bags in China and the increment brought by the superposition of the “soft bag + hard shell” secondary packaging mode of long and short blade batteries; 3) the pressure of power battery enterprises to reduce costs and the increased willingness of domestic substitution. We expect that the market space of aluminum plastic film in the 21st / 25th year will be about 5.2/15.8 billion yuan, and the CAGR will be 32%.
Technological advantages + accelerate the expansion of production and build a moat for aluminum-plastic film business. The company’s aluminum-plastic film business is expected to usher in a breakthrough, mainly due to its core competitiveness: 1) R & D Investment: the company has maintained high R & D investment all year round. Relying on years of composite film technology precipitation, it has six patented technologies and original dry heat composite method, and its key performance indicators are comparable to overseas products. 2) Accelerated cost reduction through independent research and development: the company is one of the few aluminum-plastic film manufacturers with fully localized raw materials and equipment in China. The shipment of power / energy storage aluminum-plastic film accounts for 65% in 21 years. At present, it is in the stage of capacity climbing, and its profitability can be benchmarked after stabilizing. 3) The introduction of customers is good: the company has Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Ganfeng battery, Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) and other customers, and they are in the stage of production expansion. Meanwhile, the head customers such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , ATL are in the stage of verification. 4) Accelerate production expansion: the company plans to increase the production capacity of 300 million square meters of aluminum-plastic film, and the project of 10 million square meters raised and invested by IPO has reached the full production capacity. With the rapid expansion of scale, the profitability of aluminum-plastic film is expected to improve rapidly.
Based on the basic panel of photovoltaic backplane, expand new business and blossom at multiple points. The company has been deeply engaged in the photovoltaic backplane industry for many years and independently developed fluorine-free Bo backplane based on m-film base film technology. Economy: the performance of Bo backplane is better than or equal to that of traditional fluorine-containing backplane, and gets rid of the disturbance of PVDF material price factors, and its profitability is stronger than that of traditional backplane products. Customer: at present, the company’s Bo backplane has realized batch supply to the head large component factory. Production capacity: by the end of the 21st century, the production capacity of the back sector will reach 102 million square meters, with a fixed increase of 100 million square meters. The production capacity of the Bo back sector is expected to be digested smoothly. At that time, the shipping structure will be optimized, and the proportion of the Bo back sector is expected to increase to 60% this year. Expand the plastic film business, and the expansion project with an annual output of 120 million square meters of plastic film is normally promoted. At present, four lines have been put into operation and supplied to customers in batches, which is expected to bring new profit growth points to the company.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve revenue of RMB 2.390/31.71/4.202 billion from 2022 to 2024; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 222 / 318 / 460 million respectively, with a growth rate of 80% / 44% / 45% respectively. On April 29, the share price corresponds to PE multiple of 18x / 13X / 9x. The company’s photovoltaic packaging business has grown steadily. The aluminum-plastic film business has fully benefited from the wave of localization substitution, and its performance may usher in rapid growth. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the downstream demand is less than expected and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
