\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 650 Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) )
Events
The company issued the performance announcement of 2021 and 22q1: the revenue in 2021 was 1.76 billion (- 15.3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 80 million (- 145.5%); The single Q4 revenue is 560 million yuan (+ 13.0%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is – 80 million yuan (- 322.8%); 22q1’s revenue was 520 million (1.1%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 01 million yuan (- 97.8%), and the performance was lower than expected.
Comments
Product structure adjustment and upgrading, price increase driving revenue growth
In 2021, the revenue of soy sauce / vegetable oil (accounting for 49% / 31%) was 860 million / 550 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.3% / – 14.2%; The revenue of small products (mainly vinegar, chicken essence, monosodium glutamate and other products) reached 340 million, a year-on-year increase of – 17.3%. The decline in revenue is mainly due to the impact of community group buying and the decline in consumer demand. The company has carried out a large number of product promotion and gift activities for the preservation market, resulting in the decline of customer unit price. The company has raised the price of products in November 2021 by 3% – 7%, and the transmission of new prices has been basically completed. It is expected that with the acceleration of the process of product structure adjustment, the proportion of high-end price belt products will increase rapidly, and the price increase will drive the higher growth of revenue.
Actively optimize the dealer structure and speed up the coverage of terminal outlets
In 2021, the revenue of central China / East China / Southwest / South China / North China / Northwest / Northeast was – 18.2% / – 19.3% / – 7.6% / – 12.4% / – 12.4% / – 5.9% / – 1.1% year-on-year respectively, with a net increase of 131 to 1525 dealers and 62 / 56 / 29 / 8 / – 20 / 4 / – 8 dealers in Central China / East China / Southwest / South China / North China / Northwest / Northeast respectively. The company’s “three expansion” (expanding dealers, channels and terminal outlets) strategy has achieved certain results and further consolidated the stock market. In the future, the company will continue to deepen the traditional channels, explore the big business model with dealers, and integrate the national channel resources more efficiently; And has begun to layout new media, community group buying, catering and other new channels to explore the incremental market.
Profitability needs to be improved, and short-term performance is expected to improve
1) profit side: in 2021, the gross profit margin of single Q4 / 22q1 company was 20.1% / 16.8% / 18.74% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -9.0pct / – 4.2pct / – 6.5pct, which was mainly affected by the rise of raw material cost; 2021 / single Q4 / 22q1 net profit attributable to the parent company was – 4.6% / – 14.7% / 0.1%, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.1pct / – 22.1pct / – 8.4pct, which was mainly due to the company’s increased product promotion and increased front-line market business personnel and expense investment in order to stabilize market share and expand new business areas;
2) expense side: in 2021, the company’s sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio was + 3.3pct / + 2.0pct / + 0.1pct / – 0.3pct year-on-year respectively, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio of 21q4 company was + 12.0pct / + 1.9pct / + 0.5pct / + 0.9pct year-on-year respectively. Due to the company’s many initiatives and measures to adjust the company’s business in 2021, all expenses increased significantly. 22q1 sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio is + 3.2pct / + 0.01pct / + 0.2pct / + 0.5pct respectively year-on-year. It is expected that the effect of expense investment will be reflected quarter by quarter in 2022, and the company’s performance is expected to be greatly improved in 2022 under expense control and retraction.
The management structure has undergone profound changes, and the medium and long-term performance flexibility can be expected
In the medium and long term, the organizational reform of the company continues to deepen, and the performance elasticity can be expected under the condition of cost reduction and efficiency increase. 1) Strategic focus and clear playing method: the company’s salt reduction product matrix is perfect, and all channels and price bands are covered, which can be attacked and defended. The company tilts resources to invest, and the profit margin of the channel is higher than 10% – 15% of that of general products. At the same time, it gives dealers additional rebates, and the channel thrust is sufficient. At this stage, we will focus on promoting the dynamic sales in the multi billion market and high-speed wire market, and create various model dynamic sales models, which are expected to be replicated nationwide in the future; 2) The change of organizational structure provides bottom support: the company specially sets up the salt reduction division to focus on assessing the proportion of salt reduction products, integrate the supply chain department, improve the efficiency of front office operation and service, accelerate the delivery speed, reduce the inventory pressure of dealers, and help to improve the willingness of dealers to cooperate.
Profit forecast and valuation
We predict that the revenue growth of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 14.2%, 16.2% and 13.8% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 183.7%, 40.2% and 22.1% respectively; EPS is 0.13, 0.18 and 0.22 yuan / share respectively; PE was 28, 20 and 17 times respectively.
Risk tips
The progress of channel expansion is lower than expected, the price of raw materials rises, and food safety risks.
