\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, it achieved revenue of 110.6 billion yuan (+ 14.2%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 8.7 billion yuan (+ 23%), of which 21q4 achieved revenue of 25.6 billion yuan (+ 10.7%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 760 million yuan (- 27.8%). At the same time, it is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 9.6 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 31 billion yuan (+ 13.5%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.52 billion yuan (+ 24.3%), exceeding market expectations.
The volume and price rise together, and the consumption of dairy products is booming. 2021: 1. By category, liquid milk, milk powder, dairy products and cold drink products achieved operating revenue of 84.9 billion yuan (+ 11.5%), 16.2 billion yuan (+ 25.8%) and 7.16 billion yuan (+ 16.3%) respectively. 1) The liquid milk business continued to take the lead. The sales scale of Yili basic white milk, Jindian and anmushi exceeded 20 billion yuan, and Zhennong pure milk increased by about 60%; The product structure continued to upgrade, and the market share of organic milk increased by 0.64pp. 2) The income of jinlingguan milk powder exceeds 10 billion yuan, and the organic A2 milk source has passed the dual organic certification of China and Europe, realizing a breakthrough in Organic Infant powder preparation. In addition, Yili and Aoyou will fully cooperate and unite in milk source, supply chain, technology and channels, which is expected to accelerate the market share of milk powder. 2. In terms of channels, the sales revenue of distribution and direct sales reached 105 billion yuan (+ 13.8%) and 3.46 billion yuan (+ 12.2%) respectively. In terms of dealer development, by the end of 2021, the company had 15000 dealers, with a net increase of 2262. Channel penetration continued to increase. In 2021, the company's penetration in prefecture level cities and county-level cities increased by 0.6pp and 1.2pp respectively. 2022q1: 1. By category, liquid milk, milk powder, dairy products and cold drink products achieved operating revenue of 22.3 billion yuan (+ 7%), 5.4 billion yuan (+ 35.3%) and 2.8 billion yuan (+ 35.5%) respectively. 2. In terms of channels, distribution and direct operation achieved operating revenue of 29.5 billion yuan (+ 13.8%) and 1.1 billion yuan (+ 8.1%) respectively.
Milk prices remained high, superimposed product structure upgrading, cost contraction, and the logic of net interest rate increase was obvious. 1. In 2021, the overall gross profit margin was 30.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5pp. In 2022q1, the overall gross profit margin was 34.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8pp. The raw milk price remained high, superimposed with the upgrading of product structure, and the gross profit margin increased steadily. 2. In terms of expense ratio: 1) in 2021, the sales expense ratio was 17.5%, remained stable, and the gross sales difference increased by 0.5pp to 13.1%; The rate of administrative expenses was 3.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2pp; The R & D expense rate was 0.5%, which remained basically stable; The financial expense rate is close to 0. The cost investment continued to be rationalized, and the traditional promotion modes such as buying gifts and price war slowed down, driving the improvement of profitability. 2) In 2022q1, the sales expense ratio was 18.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2pp, and the gross sales difference increased by 0.9pp to 16.6%; The rate of administrative expenses was 3.3%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2pp; The R & D expense rate was 0.4%, which remained stable; The financial expense ratio was - 0.4%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3pp, mainly due to the increase of exchange income. In 2021, the overall net interest rate was 7.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6pp. In 2022q1, the overall net interest rate was 11.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 1pp. The profitability continued to improve and reached a new high.
A fixed increase of 12 billion yuan was raised to consolidate the advantages of liquid milk and milk powder. In December 2021, the company issued 318 million shares to 22 objects at the price of 37.89 yuan / share, raising 12 billion yuan. Among them, the liquid milk production base, infant powder intelligent manufacturing project and digital construction plan to use the fund-raising amount of 5 billion yuan, 1.55 billion yuan and 1.1 billion yuan respectively, which will further consolidate the advantages of the company in liquid milk and infant powder, improve the overall efficiency and support the long-term development of the company through digital and information construction. The company plans to achieve a total operating revenue of 129.6 billion yuan and a total profit of 12.2 billion yuan in 2022, which is expected to be more likely to achieve the goal; The long-term matching of raw milk supply and demand will be improved, and the raw milk cycle will slow down significantly. At the same time, under the catalysis of the epidemic, the overall demand for dairy products will remain strong, the leading dairy products will continue to benefit, and the long-term growth of income and profitability can be expected.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 10.8 billion yuan, 12.9 billion yuan and 15.4 billion yuan respectively, EPS will be 1.33 yuan, 1.67 yuan and 1.99 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 27 times, 21 times and 18 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw milk continues to rise; Industry competition intensifies; Food safety risks.
